Everton vs Chelsea prediction

Recent form

EVE DDDWD

CHE WLDLW

Last 5 league results · 47% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Everton vs

Chelsea

Everton wins

Draws

Chelsea wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.62 vs 1.44

EvertonChelsea

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

Venue	Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Referee	TBC
Status	Not Started

Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Everton

1 1

Chelsea

Model's most likely score · 10.9% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 12:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

42.0%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
Everton 1-1 Chelsea	10.9%
Everton 2-1 Chelsea	8.9%
Everton 1-2 Chelsea	7.9%
Everton 1-0 Chelsea	7.6%
Everton 0-1 Chelsea	6.8%

In brief

Fifth-placed Everton host sixth-placed Chelsea. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Everton are unbeaten at home and Chelsea have won one of their three away games. Chelsea are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Everton a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Everton vs

Chelsea

Attack strength

0.95 / 1.01

Defence strength

1.00 / 0.91

Head-to-head

0.94 / 1.05

Injury factor

1.01 / 0.98

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Everton win42%

Draw24%

Chelsea win34%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

5.9%

Overround

Everton HIGHER

Model42.0%

Market30.3%

Difference +11.7 points

Draw —

Model23.9%

Market25.8%

Difference -1.8 points

Chelsea LOWER

Model34.1%

Market43.9%

Difference -9.8 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

5.1%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.67 —

Model59.0%

Market57.1%

Difference +1.9 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.22 —

Model41.0%

Market42.9%

Difference -1.9 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
V. Mykolenko	Everton	Injury
E. Emegha	Chelsea	Muscle Injury
J. Gittens	Chelsea	Ankle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Hill Dickinson Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 12:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 12:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results