Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

CRY LLWLD
NOT LDDWL
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
1
Crystal Palace wins
8
Draws
3
Nottingham Forest wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.08 vs 1.61
Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueSelhurst Park, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Crystal Palace
1 2
Nottingham Forest
Model's expected scoreline · 9.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
49.5%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest 11.8%
Crystal Palace 0-1 Nottingham Forest 10.9%
Crystal Palace 1-2 Nottingham Forest 9.5%
Crystal Palace 0-2 Nottingham Forest 8.8%
Crystal Palace 1-0 Nottingham Forest 7.4%

In brief

Fifteenth-placed Crystal Palace host thirteenth-placed Nottingham Forest. Both sides arrive in poor form. Crystal Palace have lost every home game this season and Nottingham Forest are unbeaten away from home. Crystal Palace have one of the league's leakiest defences. Nottingham Forest have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Nottingham Forest slight favourites. The model gives Nottingham Forest a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Attack strength
0.85 / 0.98
Defence strength
0.87 / 1.2
Head-to-head
0.97 / 1.03
Injury factor
0.97 / 1.03
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Crystal Palace win26%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest win49%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Crystal Palace LOWER
Model25.7%
Market35.8%
Difference -10.1 points
Draw LOWER
Model24.9%
Market28.5%
Difference -3.6 points
Nottingham Forest HIGHER
Model49.5%
Market35.8%
Difference +13.7 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
15
Bookmakers
6.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.01 HIGHER
Model50.4%
Market46.7%
Difference +3.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.76 LOWER
Model49.6%
Market53.3%
Difference -3.7 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. MatetaCrystal PalaceHamstring Injury
C. RiadCrystal PalaceKnee Injury
A. DisasiCrystal PalaceRed Card
D. HendersonCrystal PalaceFoot Injury
N. SavonaNottingham ForestKnee Injury
N. MilenkovicNottingham ForestMuscle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Selhurst Park fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results