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Recent form

CRY L
MCI W
Last 5 league results · 0% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Crystal Palace vs Man City
3
Crystal Palace wins
5
Draws
12
Man City wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.92 vs 1.23
Crystal PalaceMan City
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueSelhurst Park, London
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Crystal Palace
1 4
Man City
We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
43.3%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Crystal Palace 0-1 Man City 14.3%
Crystal Palace 1-1 Man City 13.2%
Crystal Palace 0-0 Man City 11.6%
Crystal Palace 1-0 Man City 10.7%
Crystal Palace 0-2 Man City 8.8%

In brief

Final score: Crystal Palace 1-4 Man City. Seventeenth-placed Crystal Palace hosted seventh-placed Man City. Crystal Palace arrived in poor form and Man City in excellent form. Man City had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides and expected a tight, low-scoring game.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Crystal Palace vs Man City
Attack strength
0.80 / 1.07
Defence strength
0.94 / 1.07
Form factor
0.75 / 1.25
Head-to-head
0.85 / 1.15
Injury factor
0.88 / 0.94
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Crystal Palace win28%
Draw29%
Man City win43%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. MatetaCrystal PalaceHamstring Injury
C. RiadCrystal PalaceKnee Injury
I. SarrCrystal PalaceGroin Injury
E. NketiahCrystal PalaceInjury
J. DokuManchester CityCalf Injury
N. O'ReillyManchester CityBack Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Crystal Palace Man City
Full-time score14
Model predicted11
WRONG RESULT

Live match stats

StatCrystal Palace Manchester City
Shots on goal 1 9
Shots off goal 7 7
Total shots 9 18
Blocked shots 1 2
Shots inside box 6 13
Shots outside box 3 5
Fouls 8 11
Corner kicks 2 6
Offsides 3 0
Ball possession 28% 72%
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 4 1
Total passes 291 788
Passes accurate 236 731
Pass accuracy 81% 93%
Expected goals (xG) 0.66 2.21
Goals prevented -0.95 -0.95

Confirmed lineups

Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
1D. HendersonG
6J. CanvotD
26C. RichardsD
17T. TomiyasuD
25A. KhalailiM
20A. WhartonM
18D. KamadaM
3T. MitchellM
10Y. PinoF
9E. NketiahF
22J. LarsenF
Manchester City (4-2-3-1)
1G. DonnarummaG
45A. KhusanovD
3R. DiasD
6M. GuehiD
24J. GvardiolD
33N. O'ReillyM
5E. AndersonM
47P. FodenM
10R. CherkiM
42A. SemenyoM
9E. HaalandF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results