Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

COV LLLLW
NEW DWDLW
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

No historical meetings on record between these two clubs.

Expected goals (xG)

1.19 vs 1.36
Coventry CityNewcastle United
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueCoventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Coventry City
1 1
Newcastle United
Model's expected scoreline · 12.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 11 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
40.7%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Coventry City 1-1 Newcastle United 12.6%
Coventry City 0-1 Newcastle United 10.7%
Coventry City 1-0 Newcastle United 9.3%
Coventry City 1-2 Newcastle United 8.6%
Coventry City 0-0 Newcastle United 7.8%

In brief

Eighteenth-placed Coventry City host ninth-placed Newcastle United. Coventry City arrive in poor form and Newcastle United in mixed form, and Coventry City won their last game after losing the four before it. Coventry City have lost every home game this season and Newcastle United have won one of their two away games. Coventry City are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The bookmakers give Newcastle United a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Coventry City vs Newcastle United
Attack strength
0.66 / 0.87
Defence strength
0.83 / 0.93
Head-to-head
1.0 / 1.0
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Coventry City win33%
Draw27%
Newcastle United win41%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Coventry City HIGHER
Model32.7%
Market28.7%
Difference +4.0 points
Draw —
Model26.6%
Market26.3%
Difference +0.3 points
Newcastle United LOWER
Model40.7%
Market45.0%
Difference -4.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
13
Bookmakers
6.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.67 LOWER
Model46.8%
Market56.2%
Difference -9.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.14 HIGHER
Model53.2%
Market43.8%
Difference +9.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
L. WoolfendenCoventryKnee Injury
H. WrightCoventryMuscle Injury
K. Kesler-HaydenCoventryMuscle Injury
A. AmendaCoventryCalf Injury
T. AwoniyiCoventryRed Card
J. EcclesCoventryInjury
JoelintonNewcastleThigh Injury
D. BurnNewcastleAnkle Injury
W. OsulaNewcastleInjury
A. DedicNewcastleInjury
A. ElangaNewcastleKnee Injury
E. JaouenNewcastleAnkle Injury
NicoNewcastleInjury
J. RamseyNewcastleInjury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Coventry Building Society Arena fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results