Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

CHE W
BHA W
Last 5 league results · 100% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Chelsea vs Brighton
9
Chelsea wins
5
Draws
6
Brighton wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.33 vs 1.20
ChelseaBrighton
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStamford Bridge, London
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Chelsea
4 3
Brighton
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
62.6%
High
ScorelineProbability
Chelsea 2-1 Brighton 9.5%
Chelsea 1-1 Brighton 8.2%
Chelsea 2-0 Brighton 7.9%
Chelsea 3-1 Brighton 7.4%
Chelsea 1-0 Brighton 6.8%

In brief

Final score: Chelsea 4-3 Brighton. Sixth-placed Chelsea hosted leaders Brighton. Both sides arrived in excellent form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Brighton had the longer injury list. The model made Chelsea favourites and expected plenty of goals.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Chelsea vs Brighton
Attack strength
1.20 / 1.33
Defence strength
0.94 / 1.25
Form factor
1.25 / 1.25
Head-to-head
1.00 / 0.99
Injury factor
0.88 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Chelsea win63%
Draw19%
Brighton win18%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. CaicedoChelseaInjury
E. EmeghaChelseaInjury
J. HendersonChelseaWrist Injury
M. PalestraChelseaInjury
E. FergusonBrightonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehBrightonInjury
K. MitomaBrightonHamstring Injury
S. TzimasBrightonKnee Injury
J. HinshelwoodBrightonInjury
F. AzeezBrightonAbdominal strain
G. RutterBrightonInjury
M. SvobodaBrightonInjury
M. WiefferBrightonKnee Injury
Z. YohannaBrightonLacking Match Fitness

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Chelsea Brighton
Full-time score43
Model predicted21
CORRECT RESULT

Live match stats

StatChelsea Brighton
Shots on goal 6 6
Shots off goal 5 8
Total shots 17 15
Blocked shots 6 1
Shots inside box 15 13
Shots outside box 2 2
Fouls 6 12
Corner kicks 4 7
Offsides - -
Ball possession 26% 74%
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 4 1
Total passes 218 628
Passes accurate 147 550
Pass accuracy 67% 88%
Expected goals (xG) 2.97 1.56
Goals prevented -1.60 -1.60

Confirmed lineups

Chelsea (3-4-2-1)
26Emiliano MartínezG
3Wesley FofanaD
5Maxence LacroixD
6Levi ColwillD
7Pedro NetoM
27Malo GustoM
45Roméo LaviaM
21Jorrel HatoM
10Cole PalmerF
17Morgan RogersF
9João PedroF
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
1Bart VerbruggenG
27Mats WiefferD
44Luka VuškovićD
5Lewis DunkD
24Ferdi KadıoğluD
13Pascal GroßM
21Olivier BoscagliM
25Diego GómezM
35Malick YalcouyéM
29Maxim De CuyperM
19Charalampos KostoulasF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results