Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

CHE WWLDL
BOU LDDDL
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth
11
Chelsea wins
5
Draws
3
AFC Bournemouth wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.83 vs 1.37
ChelseaAFC Bournemouth
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueStamford Bridge, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Chelsea
2 1
AFC Bournemouth
Model's expected scoreline · 9.3% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
48.3%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Chelsea 1-1 AFC Bournemouth 10.2%
Chelsea 2-1 AFC Bournemouth 9.3%
Chelsea 1-0 AFC Bournemouth 7.4%
Chelsea 1-2 AFC Bournemouth 7.0%
Chelsea 2-0 AFC Bournemouth 6.8%

In brief

Tenth-placed Chelsea host seventeenth-placed AFC Bournemouth. Chelsea arrive in mixed form and AFC Bournemouth in poor form. Chelsea are unbeaten at home and AFC Bournemouth are still looking for a first away win. Chelsea have one of the league's leakiest defences. Chelsea have had much the better of their past meetings. AFC Bournemouth have the longer injury list. The model makes Chelsea slight favourites. The model gives AFC Bournemouth a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth
Attack strength
0.97 / 1.0
Defence strength
0.86 / 0.98
Head-to-head
1.05 / 0.95
Injury factor
1.07 / 0.93
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Chelsea win48%
Draw23%
AFC Bournemouth win29%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Chelsea LOWER
Model48.3%
Market52.6%
Difference -4.3 points
Draw —
Model22.8%
Market23.1%
Difference -0.4 points
AFC Bournemouth HIGHER
Model28.9%
Market24.3%
Difference +4.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

3.5
Goals line
11
Bookmakers
6.8%
Overround
Over 3.5 goalsAverage odds 2.08 LOWER
Model39.9%
Market45.1%
Difference -5.2 points
Under 3.5 goalsAverage odds 1.71 HIGHER
Model60.1%
Market54.9%
Difference +5.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. AdliBournemouthCalf Injury
J. AraujoBournemouthThigh Injury
E. J. KroupiBournemouthFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicBournemouthInjury
J. KluivertBournemouthMuscle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Stamford Bridge fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results