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Recent form

BHA LWLDW
LEE LWDDW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Brighton vs Leeds United
12
Brighton wins
5
Draws
3
Leeds United wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.72 vs 0.93
BrightonLeeds United
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAmerican Express Stadium, Falmer
Referee Stuart Attwell, England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Brighton
1 1
Leeds United
We predicted 1-1 EXACT SCORE
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
55.8%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Brighton 1-0 Leeds United 12.1%
Brighton 1-1 Leeds United 11.3%
Brighton 2-0 Leeds United 10.4%
Brighton 2-1 Leeds United 9.7%
Brighton 0-0 Leeds United 7.1%

In brief

Final score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds United. Fourth-placed Brighton hosted eleventh-placed Leeds United. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Brighton were unbeaten at home and Leeds United were unbeaten away from home. Brighton were the league's top scorers. Brighton had much the better of their earlier meetings. Brighton had the longer injury list. The model made Brighton favourites.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brighton vs Leeds United
Attack strength
2.06 / 0.83
Defence strength
1.09 / 1.46
Form factor
0.93 / 1.07
Head-to-head
1.08 / 0.92
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.91
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brighton win56%
Draw24%
Leeds United win20%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. FergusonBrightonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehBrightonInjury
K. MitomaBrightonHamstring Injury
S. TzimasBrightonKnee Injury
J. HinshelwoodBrightonInjury
M. SvobodaBrightonInjury
M. WiefferBrightonKnee Injury
Z. YohannaBrightonLacking Match Fitness
F. AzeezBrightonAbdominal strain
G. RutterBrightonInjury
M. JosephLeedsKnee Injury
I. GruevLeedsKnee Injury
J. RodonLeedsMuscle Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Brighton Leeds United
Full-time score11
Model predicted11
EXACT SCORE

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Brighton goal, 71' Leeds United goal, 15'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatBrighton Leeds
Shots on goal 5 5
Shots off goal 8 4
Total shots 20 10
Blocked shots 7 1
Shots inside box 11 10
Shots outside box 9 0
Fouls 13 16
Corner kicks 7 6
Offsides 4 2
Ball possession 67% 33%
Yellow cards 3 3
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 3 4
Total passes 522 252
Passes accurate 437 171
Pass accuracy 84% 68%
Expected goals (xG) 2.19 2.49
Goals prevented -0.32 -0.32

Confirmed lineups

Brighton (4-2-3-1)
1B. VerbruggenG
24F. KadiogluD
44L. VuskovicD
5L. DunkD
21O. BoscagliD
13P. GrossM
26Y. AyariM
25D. GomezM
35M. YalcouyeM
29M. De CuyperM
19C. KostoulasF
Leeds (3-5-2)
1J. TraffordG
24J. JustinD
30N. ElvediD
5T. MuharemovicD
2J. BogleM
18A. StachM
4E. AmpaduM
22A. TanakaM
3G. GudmundssonM
9D. Calvert-LewinF
19N. OkaforF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results