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Recent form

BHA LDWWW
CRY LWLDW
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Brighton vs Crystal Palace
5
Brighton wins
8
Draws
7
Crystal Palace wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.99 vs 1.20
BrightonCrystal Palace
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueAmex Stadium, Brighton
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Brighton
1 1
Crystal Palace
Model's most likely score · 9.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
55.6%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace 9.8%
Brighton 2-1 Crystal Palace 9.8%
Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace 8.2%
Brighton 2-0 Crystal Palace 8.1%
Brighton 3-1 Crystal Palace 6.5%

In brief

Third-placed Brighton host twelfth-placed Crystal Palace. Brighton arrive in good form and Crystal Palace in mixed form, and Brighton have won their last three. Brighton are unbeaten at home and Crystal Palace have won one of their three away games. Brighton are the league's top scorers and have one of the league's tightest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Brighton have the longer injury list. The model makes Brighton favourites. The model gives Crystal Palace a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Attack strength
1.27 / 1.01
Defence strength
1.22 / 0.99
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.00
Injury factor
0.95 / 1.04
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brighton win56%
Draw22%
Crystal Palace win23%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Brighton LOWER
Model55.6%
Market60.0%
Difference -4.4 points
Draw —
Model21.7%
Market21.9%
Difference -0.3 points
Crystal Palace HIGHER
Model22.7%
Market18.1%
Difference +4.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.58 —
Model61.7%
Market60.0%
Difference +1.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.38 —
Model38.2%
Market40.0%
Difference -1.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. FergusonBrightonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehBrightonInjury
K. MitomaBrightonHamstring Injury
S. TzimasBrightonKnee Injury
J. HinshelwoodBrightonInjury
F. AzeezBrightonAbdominal strain
M. WiefferBrightonKnee Injury
Z. YohannaBrightonLacking Match Fitness
J. MatetaCrystal PalaceHamstring Injury
C. RiadCrystal PalaceKnee Injury
A. DisasiCrystal PalaceRed Card
D. HendersonCrystal PalaceFoot Injury
T. TomiyasuCrystal PalaceCalf Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Amex Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results