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Recent form

BHA LWLDW
ARS WWWWW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Brighton vs Arsenal
6
Brighton wins
5
Draws
9
Arsenal wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.57 vs 2.28
BrightonArsenal
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAmex Stadium, Brighton
Referee Darren England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Brighton
3 0
Arsenal
We predicted 1-2 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
76.2%
High
ScorelineProbability
Brighton 0-2 Arsenal 15.0%
Brighton 0-1 Arsenal 13.1%
Brighton 0-3 Arsenal 11.4%
Brighton 1-2 Arsenal 8.6%
Brighton 1-1 Arsenal 7.5%

In brief

Final score: Brighton 3-0 Arsenal. Fourth-placed Brighton hosted leaders Arsenal. Brighton arrived in mixed form and Arsenal in excellent form, and Arsenal had won their last five. Brighton were unbeaten at home and Arsenal had won every away game this season. Brighton were the league's top scorers; Arsenal were one of the league's highest-scoring sides and had conceded the fewest goals in the league. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Brighton had the longer injury list. The model made Arsenal clear favourites.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brighton vs Arsenal
Attack strength
1.54 / 1.34
Defence strength
0.90 / 2.91
Form factor
0.93 / 1.25
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.03
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brighton win8%
Draw16%
Arsenal win76%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. FergusonBrightonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehBrightonInjury
K. MitomaBrightonHamstring Injury
S. TzimasBrightonKnee Injury
J. HinshelwoodBrightonInjury
F. AzeezBrightonAbdominal strain
G. RutterBrightonInjury
M. SvobodaBrightonInjury
M. WiefferBrightonKnee Injury
Z. YohannaBrightonLacking Match Fitness
W. SalibaArsenalBack Injury
J. TimberArsenalAnkle Injury
C. MosqueraArsenalMuscle Injury
Gabriel JesusArsenalTransfer negotiations
G. MartinelliArsenalTransfer negotiations

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Brighton Arsenal
Full-time score30
Model predicted12
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 1 2 3 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Brighton goal, 31'Brighton goal, 45'Brighton goal, 57'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatBrighton Arsenal
Passes accurate 260 433
Shots inside box 10 10
Shots outside box 7 1
Blocked shots 3 5
Free kicks 10 13
Shots on goal 5 2
Goalkeeper saves 2 2
Shots off goal 9 4
Total passes 343 511
Total shots 17 11
Yellow cards 4 1
Corner kicks 5 6
Offsides 0 2
Fouls 13 11
Red cards 0 0
Ball possession 40% 60%

Confirmed lineups

Brighton (4-2-3-1)
1B. VerbruggenG
24F. KadıoğluD
44L. VuškovićD
4P. StruijkD
21O. BoscagliD
14José María Andrés BaixauliM
13P. GroßM
25D. GómezM
26Y. AyariM
29M. De CuyperM
19C. KostoulasF
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
1David RayaG
12J. TimberD
15E. KonsaD
6Gabriel MagalhãesD
33R. CalafioriD
41D. RiceM
39Bruno GuimarãesM
7B. SakaM
8M. ØdegaardM
17C. TzolisM
29K. HavertzF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results