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Recent form

BRE DWDDD
SUN WLWDL
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Brentford vs Sunderland
2
Brentford wins
2
Draws
1
Sunderland wins
From 5 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.33 vs 0.49
BrentfordSunderland
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueBrentford Community Stadium, London
Referee Thomas Bramall, England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Brentford
1 1
Sunderland
We predicted 1-0 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
57.7%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Brentford 1-0 Sunderland 21.5%
Brentford 0-0 Sunderland 16.2%
Brentford 2-0 Sunderland 14.3%
Brentford 1-1 Sunderland 10.6%
Brentford 0-1 Sunderland 8.0%

In brief

Final score: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland. Sixth-placed Brentford hosted fourteenth-placed Sunderland. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Brentford were unbeaten at home and Sunderland were still looking for a first away win. Brentford had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Brentford favourites and expected a tight, low-scoring game.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brentford vs Sunderland
Attack strength
1.20 / 0.63
Defence strength
1.29 / 1.09
Form factor
0.93 / 0.93
Head-to-head
1.08 / 0.92
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brentford win58%
Draw29%
Sunderland win14%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. MilamboBrentfordKnee Injury
S. van den BergBrentfordInjury
N. CollinsBrentfordInjury
J. DasilvaBrentfordInjury
M. JensenBrentfordMuscle Injury
H. DiarraSunderlandHamstring Injury
R. MundleSunderlandKnee Injury
J. AnguloSunderlandOff the roster
A. BrowneSunderlandOff the roster
M. EllborgSunderlandOff the roster
J. Ta BiSunderlandOff the roster
C. TalbiSunderlandOff the roster

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Brentford Sunderland
Full-time score11
Model predicted10
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Brentford goal, 57' Sunderland goal, 82'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatBrentford Sunderland
Shots on goal 2 5
Shots off goal 6 6
Total shots 12 14
Blocked shots 4 3
Shots inside box 7 10
Shots outside box 5 4
Fouls 19 9
Corner kicks 4 3
Offsides 0 3
Ball possession 49% 51%
Yellow cards 3 2
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 2 1
Total passes 371 384
Passes accurate 287 290
Pass accuracy 77% 76%
Expected goals (xG) 1.21 1.71
Goals prevented 0.07 0.07

Confirmed lineups

Brentford (4-2-3-1)
1C. KelleherG
33M. KayodeD
20K. AjerD
22N. CollinsD
23K. Lewis-PotterD
18M. SangareM
27V. JaneltM
11D. OuattaraM
24M. DamsgaardM
7K. SchadeM
9I. ThiagoF
Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
22R. RoefsG
20N. MukieleD
4K. DansoD
5D. BallardD
17R. MandavaD
34G. XhakaM
27N. SadikiM
12T. MeunierM
28E. Le FeeM
10N. AnguloM
9B. BrobbeyF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results