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Recent form

BRE DDDWD
LIV DWDWL
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Brentford vs Liverpool
2
Brentford wins
2
Draws
6
Liverpool wins
From 10 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.68 vs 1.35
BrentfordLiverpool
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueBrentford Community Stadium, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Brentford
1 1
Liverpool
Model's most likely score · 11.0% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
45.3%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Brentford 1-1 Liverpool 11.0%
Brentford 2-1 Liverpool 9.2%
Brentford 1-0 Liverpool 8.1%
Brentford 1-2 Liverpool 7.4%
Brentford 2-0 Liverpool 6.8%

In brief

Fourth-placed Brentford host ninth-placed Liverpool. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Brentford are unbeaten at home and Liverpool are unbeaten away from home. Liverpool have had much the better of their past meetings. Liverpool have the longer injury list. The model makes Brentford slight favourites. The model gives Brentford a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brentford vs Liverpool
Attack strength
1.24 / 1.16
Defence strength
1.25 / 1.11
Head-to-head
0.89 / 1.11
Injury factor
1.04 / 0.95
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brentford win45%
Draw24%
Liverpool win31%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Brentford HIGHER
Model45.3%
Market38.7%
Difference +6.7 points
Draw —
Model23.8%
Market25.9%
Difference -2.1 points
Liverpool LOWER
Model30.8%
Market35.4%
Difference -4.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.54 —
Model58.3%
Market60.9%
Difference -2.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.4 —
Model41.7%
Market39.1%
Difference +2.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. MilamboBrentfordKnock
J. DasilvaBrentfordMuscle Injury
N. CollinsBrentfordCalf Injury
K. FuroBrentfordSurgery
M. DamsgaardBrentfordAnkle Injury
C. BradleyLiverpoolKnee Injury
H. EkitikeLiverpoolAchilles Tendon Injury
G. LeoniLiverpoolKnee Injury
F. ChiesaLiverpoolOff the roster
C. GakpoLiverpoolAnkle Injury
A. IsakLiverpoolThigh Injury
D. SzoboszlaiLiverpoolHamstring Injury
W. EndoLiverpoolOff the roster

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Brentford Community Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results