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BRE DWDDD
CHE LWWLD
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Brentford vs Chelsea
3
Brentford wins
5
Draws
6
Chelsea wins
From 14 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.90 vs 1.50
BrentfordChelsea
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueBrentford Community Stadium, London
Referee Andrew Madley
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Brentford
3 0
Chelsea
We predicted 2-2 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
47.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Brentford 1-1 Chelsea 9.5%
Brentford 2-1 Chelsea 9.0%
Brentford 1-2 Chelsea 7.1%
Brentford 2-2 Chelsea 6.8%
Brentford 1-0 Chelsea 6.3%

In brief

Final score: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea. Sixth-placed Brentford hosted fifth-placed Chelsea. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Brentford were unbeaten at home and Chelsea had won one of their two away games. Chelsea were one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Chelsea had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Brentford slight favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Brentford a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brentford vs Chelsea
Attack strength
1.20 / 1.63
Defence strength
1.29 / 0.67
Form factor
0.93 / 0.93
Head-to-head
0.95 / 1.05
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.88
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brentford win47%
Draw22%
Chelsea win31%

Odds comparison — 1x2

58
Bookmakers
58
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Brentford HIGHER
Model47.1%
Market33.2%
Difference +13.9 points
Draw —
Model22.2%
Market24.9%
Difference -2.7 points
Chelsea LOWER
Model30.7%
Market41.9%
Difference -11.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

3.5
Goals line
14
Bookmakers
6.6%
Overround
Over 3.5 goalsAverage odds 2.18 —
Model44.3%
Market43.0%
Difference +1.2 points
Under 3.5 goalsAverage odds 1.65 —
Model55.7%
Market57.0%
Difference -1.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. MilamboBrentfordKnee Injury
S. van den BergBrentfordInjury
N. CollinsBrentfordInjury
J. DasilvaBrentfordInjury
M. JensenBrentfordMuscle Injury
M. CaicedoChelseaInjury
E. EmeghaChelseaInjury
J. HendersonChelseaWrist Injury
M. PalestraChelseaInjury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Brentford Chelsea
Full-time score30
Model predicted22
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 1 2 3 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Brentford goal, 61'Brentford goal, 83'Brentford goal, 90'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatBrentford Chelsea
Passes accurate 276 446
Shots inside box 9 8
Shots outside box 4 4
Blocked shots 4 7
Free kicks 7 10
Shots on goal 6 2
Goalkeeper saves 2 3
Shots off goal 3 3
Offsides 2 2
Total passes 349 514
Total shots 13 12
Yellow cards 2 0
Corner kicks 4 12
Fouls 10 7
Red cards 0 0
Ball possession 40% 60%

Confirmed lineups

Brentford (4-2-3-1)
1C. KelleherG
33M. KayodeD
44Jannik SchusterD
20K. AjerD
23K. Lewis-PotterD
6Y. YarmolyukM
27V. JaneltM
19J. AnthonyM
24M. DamsgaardM
7K. SchadeM
9ThiagoF
Chelsea (3-4-2-1)
1E. MartínezG
3W. FofanaD
5M. LacroixD
6L. ColwillD
7Pedro NetoM
14J. HendersonM
4V. BarcoM
29Pep ChavarríaM
10C. PalmerM
17M. RogersM
18D. WelbeckF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results