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Recent form

BOU DDDLL
SUN WDLLL
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Bournemouth vs Sunderland
2
Bournemouth wins
2
Draws
2
Sunderland wins
From 6 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.68 vs 1.40
BournemouthSunderland
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueVitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Bournemouth
1 1
Sunderland
Model's most likely score · 10.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
44.2%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland 10.8%
Bournemouth 2-1 Sunderland 9.1%
Bournemouth 1-0 Sunderland 7.7%
Bournemouth 1-2 Sunderland 7.6%
Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland 6.5%

In brief

Eighteenth-placed Bournemouth host seventeenth-placed Sunderland. Both sides arrive in poor form, and Sunderland have lost their last three. Bournemouth are still looking for a first home win and Sunderland are still looking for a first away win. Bournemouth have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Sunderland a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Attack strength
0.96 / 1.05
Defence strength
1.05 / 0.92
Head-to-head
1.02 / 0.98
Injury factor
0.97 / 1.03
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Bournemouth win44%
Draw24%
Sunderland win32%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Bournemouth —
Model44.2%
Market46.7%
Difference -2.5 points
Draw LOWER
Model23.7%
Market26.7%
Difference -3.0 points
Sunderland HIGHER
Model32.1%
Market26.6%
Difference +5.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.81 HIGHER
Model59.5%
Market52.7%
Difference +6.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.02 LOWER
Model40.5%
Market47.3%
Difference -6.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. AdliBournemouthCalf Injury
J. AraujoBournemouthThigh Injury
E. J. KroupiBournemouthFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicBournemouthInjury
J. KluivertBournemouthMuscle Injury
A. ScottBournemouthThigh Injury
H. DiarraSunderlandHamstring Injury
R. MundleSunderlandKnee Injury
D. BallardSunderlandMuscle Injury
B. BrobbeySunderlandMuscle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Vitality Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results