AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction

Recent form

BOU DLDDD

LIV DDDWD

Last 5 league results · 27% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Bournemouth vs

Liverpool

Bournemouth wins

Draws

Liverpool wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.66 vs 1.49

BournemouthLiverpool

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Referee	Michael Oliver
Status	Full time

Result

Full time

The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.

Bournemouth

0 1

Liverpool

We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT

LOCKED 16h 04m before kickoff · 19 Sep 2026, 21:55 BST · Premier League record #1 a24355e8fc

Outcome certainty

57.1%

Medium

Scoreline	Probability
Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool	17.3%
Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool	12.9%
Bournemouth 0-0 Liverpool	11.7%
Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool	11.5%
Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool	8.5%

In brief

Final score: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool. Sixteenth-placed Bournemouth hosted tenth-placed Liverpool. Bournemouth arrived in poor form and Liverpool in mixed form. Bournemouth were still looking for a first home win and Liverpool were unbeaten away from home. Liverpool had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Liverpool favourites and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The bookmakers gave Bournemouth a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Bournemouth vs

Liverpool

Attack strength

1.05 / 1.05

Defence strength

0.84 / 1.31

Form factor

0.75 / 0.93

Head-to-head

0.85 / 1.15

Injury factor

0.85 / 0.85

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Bournemouth win17%

Draw26%

Liverpool win57%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

5.2%

Overround

Bournemouth LOWER

Model16.6%

Market30.6%

Difference -14.0 points

Draw —

Model26.3%

Market25.0%

Difference +1.3 points

Liverpool HIGHER

Model57.1%

Market44.4%

Difference +12.7 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

3.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

6.2%

Overround

Over 3.5 goalsAverage odds 2.16 LOWER

Model17.1%

Market43.5%

Difference -26.4 points

Under 3.5 goalsAverage odds 1.67 HIGHER

Model82.9%

Market56.5%

Difference +26.4 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
A. Adli	Bournemouth	Calf Injury
J. Araujo	Bournemouth	Thigh Injury
E. J. Kroupi	Bournemouth	Foot Injury
V. Milosavljevic	Bournemouth	Injury
M. Aarons	Bournemouth	Off the roster
F. Forster	Bournemouth	Off the roster
D. Jebbison	Bournemouth	Off the roster
J. Sanchez	Bournemouth	Off the roster
C. Bradley	Liverpool	Knee Injury
H. Ekitike	Liverpool	Achilles Tendon Injury
J. Gomez	Liverpool	Muscle Injury
G. Leoni	Liverpool	Knee Injury
F. Chiesa	Liverpool	Back Injury
I. Mabaya	Liverpool	Injury
W. Endo	Liverpool	Off the roster
C. Gakpo	Liverpool	Muscle Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results