AFC Bournemouth vs Everton prediction

Recent form

BOU L

EVE W

Last 5 league results · 0% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Bournemouth vs

Everton

Bournemouth wins

Draws

Everton wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.13 vs 1.05

BournemouthEverton

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Status	Full time

Result

Full time

The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.

Bournemouth

1 1

Everton

We predicted 1-1 EXACT SCORE

NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.

Outcome certainty

37.4%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
Bournemouth 1-1 Everton	13.4%
Bournemouth 1-0 Everton	12.7%
Bournemouth 0-1 Everton	11.8%
Bournemouth 0-0 Everton	11.2%
Bournemouth 2-1 Everton	7.6%

In brief

Final score: Bournemouth 1-1 Everton. Fourteenth-placed Bournemouth hosted fourth-placed Everton. Bournemouth arrived in poor form and Everton in excellent form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Bournemouth had the longer injury list. The model saw little between the sides and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The bookmakers gave Bournemouth a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Bournemouth vs

Everton

Attack strength

0.93 / 1.07

Defence strength

0.94 / 1.25

Form factor

0.75 / 1.25

Head-to-head

1.04 / 0.95

Injury factor

0.88 / 0.97

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Bournemouth win37%

Draw29%

Everton win33%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.0%

Overround

Bournemouth LOWER

Model37.4%

Market45.9%

Difference -8.5 points

Draw —

Model29.2%

Market26.9%

Difference +2.3 points

Everton HIGHER

Model33.4%

Market27.2%

Difference +6.2 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

5.6%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.83 LOWER

Model37.4%

Market51.7%

Difference -14.3 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.96 HIGHER

Model62.6%

Market48.3%

Difference +14.3 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
A. Adli	Bournemouth	Calf Injury
J. Araujo	Bournemouth	Thigh Injury
E. J. Kroupi	Bournemouth	Foot Injury
V. Milosavljevic	Bournemouth	Injury
C. Norgaard	Everton	Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score

	Bournemouth	Everton
Full-time score	1	1
Model predicted	1	1

EXACT SCORE

Live match stats

Stat	Bournemouth	Everton
Shots on goal	5	7
Shots off goal	5	6
Total shots	17	13
Blocked shots	7	0
Shots inside box	13	7
Shots outside box	4	6
Fouls	11	14
Corner kicks	10	7
Offsides	0	1
Ball possession	59%	41%
Yellow cards	3	2
Red cards	-	-
Goalkeeper saves	5	4
Total passes	453	313
Passes accurate	374	242
Pass accuracy	83%	77%
Expected goals (xG)	2.16	1.84
Goals prevented	0.90	0.90

Confirmed lineups

Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)

1	D. Petrovic	G
15	A. Smith	D
5	J. Hill	D
14	A. Silva	D
3	A. Truffert	D
4	L. Cook	M
8	A. Scott	M
37	Rayan	M
19	J. Kluivert	M
16	M. Tavernier	M
9	Evanilson	F

Everton (None)

1	J. Pickford	G
34	M. Rohl	D
6	J. Tarkowski	D
4	J. Branthwaite	D
16	V. Mykolenko	D
45	H. Armstrong	M
37	J. Garner	M
10	I. Ndiaye	M
8	K. Dewsbury-Hall	M
19	T. George	M
11	T. Barry	F

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results