Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

AVL LLDLW
BRE WDDDW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Aston Villa vs Brentford
4
Aston Villa wins
8
Draws
6
Brentford wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.07 vs 1.87
Aston VillaBrentford
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueVilla Park, Birmingham
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Aston Villa
1 2
Brentford
Model's expected scoreline · 9.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
56.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford 10.6%
Aston Villa 1-2 Brentford 9.9%
Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford 9.9%
Aston Villa 0-2 Brentford 9.3%
Aston Villa 1-3 Brentford 6.2%

In brief

Sixteenth-placed Aston Villa host fourth-placed Brentford. Aston Villa arrive in poor form and Brentford in good form. Aston Villa have lost every home game this season and Brentford are still looking for a first away win. Aston Villa are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Brentford are one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Aston Villa have the longer injury list. The model makes Brentford favourites. The model gives Brentford a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Aston Villa vs Brentford
Attack strength
0.84 / 1.16
Defence strength
0.91 / 1.14
Head-to-head
1.0 / 1.0
Injury factor
0.9 / 1.1
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Aston Villa win21%
Draw22%
Brentford win56%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Aston Villa LOWER
Model21.4%
Market36.0%
Difference -14.7 points
Draw LOWER
Model22.5%
Market27.0%
Difference -4.5 points
Brentford HIGHER
Model56.2%
Market37.0%
Difference +19.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
14
Bookmakers
6.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.7 —
Model56.3%
Market55.3%
Difference +1.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.1 —
Model43.6%
Market44.7%
Difference -1.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. MadjoAston VillaAnkle Injury
A. OnanaAston VillaKnee Injury
AlyssonAston VillaInjury
M. BizotAston VillaBack Injury
L. GoretzkaAston VillaKnee Injury
I. MaatsenAston VillaAnkle Injury
P. TorresAston VillaInjury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Villa Park fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results