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AVL LDWWL
ARS WWWWW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Aston Villa vs Arsenal
6
Aston Villa wins
1
Draws
13
Arsenal wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.88 vs 2.27
Aston VillaArsenal
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueVilla Park, Birmingham
Referee Jarred Gillett, Australia
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Aston Villa
0 1
Arsenal
We predicted 1-2 CORRECT RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
68.7%
High
ScorelineProbability
Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal 11.0%
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal 9.7%
Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal 9.7%
Aston Villa 1-1 Arsenal 8.6%
Aston Villa 0-3 Arsenal 8.4%

In brief

Final score: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal. Seventeenth-placed Aston Villa hosted ninth-placed Arsenal. Aston Villa arrived in mixed form and Arsenal in excellent form, and Arsenal had won their last five. Arsenal had much the better of their earlier meetings. Aston Villa had the longer injury list. The model made Arsenal clear favourites. The model gave Arsenal a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Attack strength
0.80 / 1.17
Defence strength
0.77 / 1.25
Form factor
0.93 / 1.25
Head-to-head
0.89 / 1.11
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Aston Villa win13%
Draw18%
Arsenal win69%

Odds comparison — 1x2

58
Bookmakers
58
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Aston Villa —
Model13.1%
Market15.2%
Difference -2.2 points
Draw LOWER
Model18.2%
Market22.4%
Difference -4.2 points
Arsenal HIGHER
Model68.7%
Market62.4%
Difference +6.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
25
Bookmakers
5.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.77 HIGHER
Model60.9%
Market53.5%
Difference +7.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.03 LOWER
Model39.0%
Market46.5%
Difference -7.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
L. BaileyAston VillaMuscle Injury
B. MadjoAston VillaAnkle Injury
J. ManzambiAston VillaKnee Injury
A. OnanaAston VillaKnee Injury
M. CashAston VillaMuscle Injury
L. GoretzkaAston VillaKnee Injury
Joao GomesAston VillaRed Card
M. CisseAston VillaOff the roster
T. Harwood-BellisAston VillaOff the roster
W. SalibaArsenalBack Injury
J. TimberArsenalAnkle Injury
C. MosqueraArsenalMuscle Injury
Gabriel JesusArsenalTransfer negotiations
G. MartinelliArsenalTransfer negotiations

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Aston Villa Arsenal
Full-time score01
Model predicted12
CORRECT RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 1 2 3 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Arsenal goal, 59'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatAston Villa Arsenal
Shots on goal 0 2
Shots off goal 5 4
Total shots 7 7
Blocked shots 2 1
Shots inside box 3 5
Shots outside box 4 2
Fouls 13 5
Corner kicks 2 3
Offsides 0 7
Ball possession 39% 61%
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 1 0
Total passes 286 458
Passes accurate 233 408
Pass accuracy 81% 89%
Expected goals (xG) 0.31 1.05
Goals prevented 0.00 0.00

Confirmed lineups

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
1Zion SuzukiG
2Matty CashD
3Victor LindelöfD
14Pau TorresD
22Ian MaatsenD
8Boubacar KamaraM
6Ross BarkleyM
7John McGinnM
10Emiliano BuendíaM
53George HemmingsM
11Nicolas JacksonF
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
1David RayaG
4Ben WhiteD
3Cristhian MosqueraD
6Gabriel MagalhãesD
33Riccardo CalafioriD
41Declan RiceM
49Myles Lewis-SkellyM
7Bukayo SakaM
8Martin ØdegaardM
17Christos TzolisM
29Kai HavertzF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results