Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

ARS WWWWL
LEE WDDWD
Last 5 league results · 80% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Arsenal vs Leeds United
10
Arsenal wins
1
Draws
0
Leeds United wins
From 11 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.88 vs 0.84
ArsenalLeeds United
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueEmirates Stadium, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Arsenal
2 1
Leeds United
Model's expected scoreline · 9.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 12:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
61.8%
High
ScorelineProbability
Arsenal 1-0 Leeds United 12.4%
Arsenal 2-0 Leeds United 11.6%
Arsenal 1-1 Leeds United 10.4%
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United 9.8%
Arsenal 3-0 Leeds United 7.3%

In brief

Second-placed Arsenal host fifth-placed Leeds United. Both sides arrive in good form, and Arsenal lost their last game after winning the four before it. Arsenal have won every home game this season and Leeds United are unbeaten away from home. Arsenal have one of the league's tightest defences; Leeds United have conceded the fewest goals in the league. Arsenal have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Arsenal favourites. The bookmakers give Arsenal a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Arsenal vs Leeds United
Attack strength
1.07 / 0.98
Defence strength
1.33 / 1.07
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Arsenal win62%
Draw22%
Leeds United win16%

Odds comparison — 1x2

36
Bookmakers
36
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Arsenal LOWER
Model61.8%
Market71.5%
Difference -9.7 points
Draw HIGHER
Model21.9%
Market18.3%
Difference +3.6 points
Leeds United HIGHER
Model16.2%
Market10.2%
Difference +6.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
14
Bookmakers
6.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.69 LOWER
Model51.1%
Market55.6%
Difference -4.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.11 HIGHER
Model48.9%
Market44.4%
Difference +4.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
W. SalibaArsenalBack Injury
C. MosqueraArsenalMuscle Injury
B. WhiteArsenalGroin Injury
M. JosephLeedsKnee Injury
J. RodonLeedsMuscle Injury
H. WilsonLeedsMuscle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Emirates Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 12:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 12:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results