Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction

Recent form

ARS WWWWW

CHE DWLWW

Last 5 league results · 100% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Arsenal vs

Chelsea

Arsenal wins

Draws

Chelsea wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.94 vs 1.15

ArsenalChelsea

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Emirates Stadium, London
Referee	C. Kavanagh
Status	Full time

Result

Full time

The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.

Arsenal

2 1

Chelsea

We predicted 3-1 CORRECT RESULT

NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.

Outcome certainty

73.5%

High

Scoreline	Probability
Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea	8.3%
Arsenal 3-1 Chelsea	8.2%
Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea	7.3%
Arsenal 3-0 Chelsea	7.1%
Arsenal 4-1 Chelsea	6.0%

In brief

Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea. Second-placed Arsenal hosted fourth-placed Chelsea. Arsenal arrived in excellent form and Chelsea in good form, and Arsenal had won their last five. Arsenal had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Arsenal clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Arsenal a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Arsenal vs

Chelsea

Attack strength

1.12 / 1.50

Defence strength

1.67 / 0.80

Form factor

1.25 / 1.25

Head-to-head

1.07 / 0.93

Injury factor

0.85 / 0.88

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Arsenal win73%

Draw14%

Chelsea win12%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

5.9%

Overround

Arsenal HIGHER

Model73.5%

Market55.9%

Difference +17.5 points

Draw LOWER

Model14.4%

Market25.2%

Difference -10.9 points

Chelsea LOWER

Model11.9%

Market18.8%

Difference -7.0 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

5.7%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.79 HIGHER

Model77.1%

Market52.9%

Difference +24.2 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.01 LOWER

Model22.6%

Market47.1%

Difference -24.5 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
W. Saliba	Arsenal	Back Injury
J. Timber	Arsenal	Ankle Injury
C. Mosquera	Arsenal	Muscle Injury
Gabriel Jesus	Arsenal	Transfer negotiations
G. Martinelli	Arsenal	Transfer negotiations
M. Caicedo	Chelsea	Injury
E. Emegha	Chelsea	Injury
J. Henderson	Chelsea	Wrist Injury
M. Palestra	Chelsea	Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results