Smart stats. Bet better.

Fixture details

VenueVilla Park, Birmingham
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Recent form

AVL LLDLW
BRE WDDDW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Aston Villa vs Brentford
4
Aston Villa wins
8
Draws
6
Brentford wins
From 18 meetings on record

Goals scored (avg)

Model's expected goals (λ) for this fixture, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries
1.12
Aston Villa
1.65
Brentford
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model weighs each team's attack and defence ratings (blended with last season's early on), head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Aston Villa
1 2
Brentford
Model's expected scoreline · 9.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 14:00 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
49.6%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford 11.6%
Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford 10.3%
Aston Villa 1-2 Brentford 9.5%
Aston Villa 0-2 Brentford 8.5%
Aston Villa 1-0 Brentford 7.0%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Aston Villa vs Brentford
Attack strength
0.88 / 1.13
Defence strength
0.93 / 1.14
Form factor (off)
1.0 / 1.0
Head-to-head
1.0 / 1.0
Injury factor
0.95 / 1.04
Weather (preview)
– / –

API-Football's own prediction

Reference only — not used by our model
Home10%
Draw45%
Away45%
AdviceDouble chance : draw or Brentford
Their engine hits the same matchday-1 zero-current-season-data gap our model works around by falling back to last season — treat this as a low-confidence data point, not a benchmark.

Win probability

Aston Villa win26%
Draw24%
Brentford win50%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34 bookmakers · 34 offering 1x2 odds · market overround 6.54%
OutcomeModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Aston Villa 25.9% 36.0% -10.1% OVERPRICED
Draw 24.5% 27.0% -2.5% —
Brentford 49.6% 37.0% 12.6% VALUE

Betting value

Value bet
Brentford
Odds 2.54
Our odds2.01
Bookmaker avg.2.54
Edge+13.0%

Odds comparison — total goals

Line 2.5 · 14 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.7 / Under 2.1
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.5 52.3% 55.3% -3.0% —
Under 2.5 47.7% 44.7% 3.0% —
Line 2.75 · 1 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.94 / Under 1.88
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.75 52.3% 49.2% 3.1% VALUE
Under 2.75 47.7% 50.8% -3.1% OVERPRICED

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. MadjoAston VillaAnkle Injury
A. OnanaAston VillaKnee Injury
Joao GomesAston VillaRed Card
AlyssonAston VillaInjury
M. BizotAston VillaBack Injury
L. GoretzkaAston VillaKnee Injury
I. MaatsenAston VillaAnkle Injury
P. TorresAston VillaInjury
M. CashAston VillaMuscle Injury
A. MilamboBrentfordKnee Injury
S. van den BergBrentfordInjury
J. DasilvaBrentfordInjury
M. JensenBrentfordMuscle Injury
N. CollinsBrentfordInjury
K. FuroBrentfordSurgery

Weather conditions

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Forecast conditions for kickoff aren't available yet. This card will show temperature, wind, and precipitation for the fixture once a forecast is in range. Expected: day of kickoff.

Confirmed lineups

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Starting XI and formation for both teams aren't announced yet. This card will show each side's lineup, shirt numbers, and formation once published. Expected: ~1 hour before kickoff.

Live match stats

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Shots, possession, corners, cards, and other in-game statistics don't exist until the match is underway. This card will fill in live once the match kicks off, and stay as the final box score after full time. Expected: from kickoff onward.

Result

NOT YET AVAILABLE
The match hasn't been played yet. This card will show the final score once the match finishes. Expected: 2026-10-10T14:00:00Z kickoff, plus ~2 hours.
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results