Smart stats. Bet better.

Fixture details

VenueCoventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Recent form

COV LLLLW
NEW DWDLW
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

No historical meetings on record between these two clubs.

Goals scored (avg)

Model's expected goals (λ) for this fixture, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries
1.18
Coventry City
1.47
Newcastle United
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model weighs each team's attack and defence ratings (blended with last season's early on), head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Coventry City
1 1
Newcastle United
Model's expected scoreline · 12.3% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 11 Oct, 19:00 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
43.7%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Coventry City 1-1 Newcastle United 12.3%
Coventry City 0-1 Newcastle United 10.4%
Coventry City 1-2 Newcastle United 9.0%
Coventry City 1-0 Newcastle United 8.4%
Coventry City 0-2 Newcastle United 7.6%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Coventry City vs Newcastle United
Attack strength
0.71 / 1.02
Defence strength
0.88 / 0.95
Form factor (off)
1.0 / 1.0
Head-to-head
1.0 / 1.0
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
Weather (preview)
– / –

API-Football's own prediction

Reference only — not used by our model
Home10%
Draw45%
Away45%
AdviceWinner : Newcastle
Their engine hits the same matchday-1 zero-current-season-data gap our model works around by falling back to last season — treat this as a low-confidence data point, not a benchmark.

Win probability

Coventry City win30%
Draw26%
Newcastle United win44%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34 bookmakers · 34 offering 1x2 odds · market overround 6.44%
OutcomeModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Coventry City 30.5% 28.7% 1.8% —
Draw 25.8% 26.3% -0.5% —
Newcastle United 43.7% 45.0% -1.3% —

Odds comparison — total goals

Line 2.5 · 13 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.67 / Under 2.14
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.5 49.3% 56.2% -6.9% OVERPRICED
Under 2.5 50.7% 43.8% 6.9% VALUE
Line 2.75 · 1 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.89 / Under 1.94
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.75 49.3% 50.7% -1.3% —
Under 2.75 50.7% 49.3% 1.3% —

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
L. WoolfendenCoventryKnee Injury
H. WrightCoventryMuscle Injury
K. Kesler-HaydenCoventryMuscle Injury
A. AmendaCoventryCalf Injury
T. AwoniyiCoventryRed Card
J. EcclesCoventryInjury
JoelintonNewcastleThigh Injury
D. BurnNewcastleAnkle Injury
W. OsulaNewcastleInjury
A. DedicNewcastleInjury
A. ElangaNewcastleKnee Injury
E. JaouenNewcastleAnkle Injury
NicoNewcastleInjury
J. RamseyNewcastleInjury

Weather conditions

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Forecast conditions for kickoff aren't available yet. This card will show temperature, wind, and precipitation for the fixture once a forecast is in range. Expected: day of kickoff.

Confirmed lineups

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Starting XI and formation for both teams aren't announced yet. This card will show each side's lineup, shirt numbers, and formation once published. Expected: ~1 hour before kickoff.

Live match stats

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Shots, possession, corners, cards, and other in-game statistics don't exist until the match is underway. This card will fill in live once the match kicks off, and stay as the final box score after full time. Expected: from kickoff onward.

Result

NOT YET AVAILABLE
The match hasn't been played yet. This card will show the final score once the match finishes. Expected: 2026-10-12T19:00:00Z kickoff, plus ~2 hours.
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results