Smart stats. Bet better.

Fixture details

VenueSelhurst Park, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Recent form

CRY LLWLD
NOT LDDWL
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
1
Crystal Palace wins
8
Draws
3
Nottingham Forest wins
From 12 meetings on record

Goals scored (avg)

Model's expected goals (λ) for this fixture, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries
0.99
Crystal Palace
1.62
Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model weighs each team's attack and defence ratings (blended with last season's early on), head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Crystal Palace
1 1
Nottingham Forest
Model's expected scoreline · 11.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 13:00 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
52.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Crystal Palace 0-1 Nottingham Forest 11.9%
Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest 11.8%
Crystal Palace 0-2 Nottingham Forest 9.6%
Crystal Palace 1-2 Nottingham Forest 9.6%
Crystal Palace 0-0 Nottingham Forest 7.3%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Attack strength
0.86 / 0.91
Defence strength
0.84 / 1.12
Form factor (off)
1.0 / 1.0
Head-to-head
0.97 / 1.03
Injury factor
0.88 / 1.12
Weather (preview)
– / –

API-Football's own prediction

Reference only — not used by our model
Home10%
Draw45%
Away45%
AdviceCombo Winner : Nottingham Forest and +1.5 goals
Their engine hits the same matchday-1 zero-current-season-data gap our model works around by falling back to last season — treat this as a low-confidence data point, not a benchmark.

Win probability

Crystal Palace win23%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest win52%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34 bookmakers · 34 offering 1x2 odds · market overround 6.5%
OutcomeModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Crystal Palace 23.1% 35.8% -12.6% OVERPRICED
Draw 24.8% 28.5% -3.7% OVERPRICED
Nottingham Forest 52.1% 35.8% 16.3% VALUE

Betting value

Value bet
Nottingham Forest
Odds 2.63
Our odds1.92
Bookmaker avg.2.63
Edge+16.0%

Odds comparison — total goals

Line 2.5 · 15 bookmakers · avg odds Over 2.01 / Under 1.76
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.5 48.5% 46.7% 1.8% —
Under 2.5 51.5% 53.3% -1.8% —

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. MatetaCrystal PalaceHamstring Injury
C. RiadCrystal PalaceKnee Injury
I. SarrCrystal PalaceGroin Injury
A. DisasiCrystal PalaceRed Card
D. HendersonCrystal PalaceFoot Injury
E. NketiahCrystal PalaceInjury
C. DoucoureCrystal PalaceOff the roster
Z. GozoCrystal PalaceOff the roster
E. GuessandCrystal PalaceOff the roster
J. LermaCrystal PalaceOff the roster
N. SavonaNottingham ForestKnee Injury
N. MilenkovicNottingham ForestMuscle Injury

Weather conditions

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Forecast conditions for kickoff aren't available yet. This card will show temperature, wind, and precipitation for the fixture once a forecast is in range. Expected: day of kickoff.

Confirmed lineups

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Starting XI and formation for both teams aren't announced yet. This card will show each side's lineup, shirt numbers, and formation once published. Expected: ~1 hour before kickoff.

Live match stats

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Shots, possession, corners, cards, and other in-game statistics don't exist until the match is underway. This card will fill in live once the match kicks off, and stay as the final box score after full time. Expected: from kickoff onward.

Result

NOT YET AVAILABLE
The match hasn't been played yet. This card will show the final score once the match finishes. Expected: 2026-10-11T13:00:00Z kickoff, plus ~2 hours.
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results