Smart stats. Bet better.

Fixture details

VenueMKM Stadium, Hull
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Recent form

HUL WWDDL
EVE WDDDW
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Hull City AFC vs Everton
1
Hull City AFC wins
2
Draws
4
Everton wins
From 7 meetings on record

Goals scored (avg)

Model's expected goals (λ) for this fixture, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries
0.91
Hull City AFC
1.22
Everton
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model weighs each team's attack and defence ratings (blended with last season's early on), head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Hull City AFC
1 1
Everton
Model's expected scoreline · 13.2% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 13:00 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
43.3%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Hull City AFC 0-1 Everton 14.6%
Hull City AFC 1-1 Everton 13.2%
Hull City AFC 0-0 Everton 12.0%
Hull City AFC 1-0 Everton 10.8%
Hull City AFC 0-2 Everton 8.9%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Hull City AFC vs Everton
Attack strength
0.95 / 0.92
Defence strength
1.17 / 1.33
Form factor (off)
1.0 / 1.0
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
0.91 / 1.09
Weather (preview)
– / –

API-Football's own prediction

Reference only — not used by our model
Home10%
Draw45%
Away45%
AdviceCombo Double chance : draw or Everton and -3.5 goals
Their engine hits the same matchday-1 zero-current-season-data gap our model works around by falling back to last season — treat this as a low-confidence data point, not a benchmark.

Win probability

Hull City AFC win27%
Draw29%
Everton win43%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34 bookmakers · 34 offering 1x2 odds · market overround 6.4%
OutcomeModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Hull City AFC 27.4% 26.0% 1.4% —
Draw 29.3% 28.6% 0.7% —
Everton 43.3% 45.5% -2.2% —

Odds comparison — total goals

Line 2.25 · 1 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.83 / Under 2.01
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.25 35.6% 52.3% -16.7% OVERPRICED
Under 2.25 64.4% 47.7% 16.7% VALUE
Line 2.5 · 14 bookmakers · avg odds Over 2.11 / Under 1.69
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.5 35.6% 44.4% -8.8% OVERPRICED
Under 2.5 64.4% 55.6% 8.8% VALUE

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. ButlandHull CityArm Injury
D. GyabiHull CityGroin Injury
C. HughesHull CityGroin Injury
E. MatazoHull CityKnee Injury
H. MoritaHull CityCalf Injury
I. AnsahHull CityBack Injury
N. MendyHull CityInjury
M. TargettHull CityAnkle Injury
C. NorgaardEvertonInjury
M. RohlEvertonInjury

Weather conditions

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Forecast conditions for kickoff aren't available yet. This card will show temperature, wind, and precipitation for the fixture once a forecast is in range. Expected: day of kickoff.

Confirmed lineups

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Starting XI and formation for both teams aren't announced yet. This card will show each side's lineup, shirt numbers, and formation once published. Expected: ~1 hour before kickoff.

Live match stats

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Shots, possession, corners, cards, and other in-game statistics don't exist until the match is underway. This card will fill in live once the match kicks off, and stay as the final box score after full time. Expected: from kickoff onward.

Result

NOT YET AVAILABLE
The match hasn't been played yet. This card will show the final score once the match finishes. Expected: 2026-10-11T13:00:00Z kickoff, plus ~2 hours.
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results