Smart stats. Bet better.

Fixture details

VenueEmirates Stadium, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Recent form

ARS WWWWL
LEE WDDWD
Last 5 league results · 80% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Arsenal vs Leeds United
10
Arsenal wins
1
Draws
0
Leeds United wins
From 11 meetings on record

Goals scored (avg)

Model's expected goals (λ) for this fixture, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries
1.74
Arsenal
0.76
Leeds United
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model weighs each team's attack and defence ratings (blended with last season's early on), head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Arsenal
1 1
Leeds United
Model's expected scoreline · 10.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 11:30 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
60.9%
High
ScorelineProbability
Arsenal 1-0 Leeds United 14.3%
Arsenal 2-0 Leeds United 12.4%
Arsenal 1-1 Leeds United 10.8%
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United 9.4%
Arsenal 0-0 Leeds United 8.2%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Arsenal vs Leeds United
Attack strength
1.16 / 0.96
Defence strength
1.4 / 1.16
Form factor (off)
1.0 / 1.0
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
Weather (preview)
– / –

API-Football's own prediction

Reference only — not used by our model
Home45%
Draw45%
Away10%
AdviceCombo Double chance : Arsenal or draw and -3.5 goals
Their engine hits the same matchday-1 zero-current-season-data gap our model works around by falling back to last season — treat this as a low-confidence data point, not a benchmark.

Win probability

Arsenal win61%
Draw23%
Leeds United win16%

Odds comparison — 1x2

36 bookmakers · 36 offering 1x2 odds · market overround 6.28%
OutcomeModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Arsenal 60.9% 71.5% -10.6% OVERPRICED
Draw 23.2% 18.3% 4.9% VALUE
Leeds United 15.9% 10.2% 5.7% VALUE

Betting value

Value bet
Leeds United
Odds 9.19
Our odds6.28
Bookmaker avg.9.19
Edge+6.0%

Odds comparison — total goals

Line 2.5 · 14 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.69 / Under 2.11
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.5 45.7% 55.6% -9.9% OVERPRICED
Under 2.5 54.3% 44.4% 9.9% VALUE
Line 2.75 · 1 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.93 / Under 1.89
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.75 45.7% 49.5% -3.8% OVERPRICED
Under 2.75 54.3% 50.5% 3.8% VALUE

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
W. SalibaArsenalBack Injury
C. MosqueraArsenalMuscle Injury
B. WhiteArsenalGroin Injury
M. JosephLeedsKnee Injury
J. RodonLeedsMuscle Injury
H. WilsonLeedsMuscle Injury

Weather conditions

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Forecast conditions for kickoff aren't available yet. This card will show temperature, wind, and precipitation for the fixture once a forecast is in range. Expected: day of kickoff.

Confirmed lineups

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Starting XI and formation for both teams aren't announced yet. This card will show each side's lineup, shirt numbers, and formation once published. Expected: ~1 hour before kickoff.

Live match stats

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Shots, possession, corners, cards, and other in-game statistics don't exist until the match is underway. This card will fill in live once the match kicks off, and stay as the final box score after full time. Expected: from kickoff onward.

Result

NOT YET AVAILABLE
The match hasn't been played yet. This card will show the final score once the match finishes. Expected: 2026-10-10T11:30:00Z kickoff, plus ~2 hours.
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results