Smart stats. Bet better.

Fixture details

VenueStadium of Light, Sunderland
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.

Recent form

SUN LWDLL
BHA WLDWW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Sunderland AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion
0
Sunderland AFC wins
1
Draws
2
Brighton & Hove Albion wins
From 3 meetings on record

Goals scored (avg)

Model's expected goals (λ) for this fixture, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries
1.18
Sunderland AFC
2.07
Brighton & Hove Albion
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model weighs each team's attack and defence ratings (blended with last season's early on), head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Sunderland AFC
1 2
Brighton & Hove Albion
Model's expected scoreline · 9.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 14:00 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
57.7%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Sunderland AFC 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion 9.8%
Sunderland AFC 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion 9.5%
Sunderland AFC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion 8.3%
Sunderland AFC 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion 8.0%
Sunderland AFC 1-3 Brighton & Hove Albion 6.8%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Sunderland AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Attack strength
0.91 / 1.41
Defence strength
0.91 / 1.14
Form factor (off)
1.0 / 1.0
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
1.01 / 0.98
Weather (preview)
– / –

API-Football's own prediction

Reference only — not used by our model
Home0%
Draw50%
Away50%
AdviceWinner : Brighton
Their engine hits the same matchday-1 zero-current-season-data gap our model works around by falling back to last season — treat this as a low-confidence data point, not a benchmark.

Win probability

Sunderland AFC win21%
Draw21%
Brighton & Hove Albion win58%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34 bookmakers · 34 offering 1x2 odds · market overround 6.4%
OutcomeModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Sunderland AFC 21.3% 34.5% -13.2% OVERPRICED
Draw 21.0% 27.7% -6.7% OVERPRICED
Brighton & Hove Albion 57.7% 37.8% 19.8% VALUE

Betting value

Value bet
Brighton & Hove Albion
Odds 2.48
Our odds1.73
Bookmaker avg.2.48
Edge+20.0%

Odds comparison — total goals

Line 2.5 · 15 bookmakers · avg odds Over 1.85 / Under 1.91
SideModelMarketEdgeVerdict
Over 2.5 63.1% 50.7% 12.4% VALUE
Under 2.5 36.9% 49.3% -12.4% OVERPRICED

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
H. DiarraSunderlandHamstring Injury
R. MandavaSunderlandRed Card
R. MundleSunderlandKnee Injury
J. AnguloSunderlandOff the roster
A. BrowneSunderlandOff the roster
M. EllborgSunderlandOff the roster
J. Ta BiSunderlandOff the roster
C. TalbiSunderlandOff the roster
E. FergusonBrightonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehBrightonInjury
K. MitomaBrightonHamstring Injury
S. TzimasBrightonKnee Injury
J. HinshelwoodBrightonInjury
F. AzeezBrightonAbdominal strain
M. SvobodaBrightonInjury
M. WiefferBrightonKnee Injury
Z. YohannaBrightonLacking Match Fitness

Weather conditions

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Forecast conditions for kickoff aren't available yet. This card will show temperature, wind, and precipitation for the fixture once a forecast is in range. Expected: day of kickoff.

Confirmed lineups

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Starting XI and formation for both teams aren't announced yet. This card will show each side's lineup, shirt numbers, and formation once published. Expected: ~1 hour before kickoff.

Live match stats

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Shots, possession, corners, cards, and other in-game statistics don't exist until the match is underway. This card will fill in live once the match kicks off, and stay as the final box score after full time. Expected: from kickoff onward.

Result

NOT YET AVAILABLE
The match hasn't been played yet. This card will show the final score once the match finishes. Expected: 2026-10-10T14:00:00Z kickoff, plus ~2 hours.
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results