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Recent form

ETR DWLLL
RCL LLDLW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Troyes vs RC Lens
4
Troyes wins
3
Draws
10
RC Lens wins
From 17 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.30 vs 2.18
TroyesRC Lens
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade de l'Aube, Troyes
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Troyes
1 2
RC Lens
Model's most likely score · 9.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
57.5%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Troyes 1-2 RC Lens 9.5%
Troyes 1-1 RC Lens 8.7%
Troyes 0-2 RC Lens 7.3%
Troyes 1-3 RC Lens 6.9%
Troyes 0-1 RC Lens 6.7%

In brief

Sixteenth-placed Troyes host tenth-placed RC Lens. Both sides arrive in poor form, and Troyes have lost their last three. Troyes are still looking for a first home win and RC Lens are still looking for a first away win. Troyes are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and have one of the league's leakiest defences. RC Lens have had much the better of their past meetings. RC Lens have the longer injury list. The model makes RC Lens favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives RC Lens a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Troyes vs RC Lens
Attack strength
0.78 / 1.22
Defence strength
0.81 / 1.00
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.06
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Troyes win22%
Draw20%
RC Lens win57%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Troyes —
Model22.2%
Market23.6%
Difference -1.4 points
Draw LOWER
Model20.3%
Market24.4%
Difference -4.1 points
RC Lens HIGHER
Model57.5%
Market51.9%
Difference +5.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.57 HIGHER
Model67.6%
Market60.4%
Difference +7.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.39 LOWER
Model32.4%
Market39.6%
Difference -7.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
I. BouraEstac TroyesHip Injury
Y. TitiEstac TroyesLeg Injury
Y. KoneEstac TroyesInjury
A. OuzenadjiEstac TroyesInjury
J. ChavezLensThigh Injury
M. NawrockiLensKnee Injury
T. HazardLensInactive
A. SimaLensMuscle Injury
J. TodiboLensInactive
M. DiarraLensOff the roster
I. JourdrenLensOff the roster
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results