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Recent form

ETR DWLLL
MAR WLLLL
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Troyes vs Marseille
1
Troyes wins
2
Draws
7
Marseille wins
From 10 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.20 vs 1.91
TroyesMarseille
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade de l'Aube, Troyes
Referee Guillaume Paradis
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Troyes
0 2
Marseille
We predicted 1-2 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 43m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 20:01 BST · Ligue 1 record #9 f569c499bc
Outcome certainty
53.9%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Troyes 1-1 Marseille 10.2%
Troyes 1-2 Marseille 9.8%
Troyes 0-1 Marseille 8.5%
Troyes 0-2 Marseille 8.1%
Troyes 1-3 Marseille 6.2%

In brief

Final score: Troyes 0-2 Marseille. Sixteenth-placed Troyes hosted seventeenth-placed Marseille. Both sides arrived in poor form, and Troyes had lost their last three while Marseille had lost their last four. Troyes were still looking for a first home win and Marseille had lost every away game this season. Troyes were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and had one of the league's leakiest defences. Marseille had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Marseille favourites. The model gave Marseille a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Troyes vs Marseille
Attack strength
0.79 / 0.97
Defence strength
0.80 / 0.95
Head-to-head
0.86 / 1.14
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Troyes win24%
Draw22%
Marseille win54%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.7%
Overround
Troyes —
Model23.8%
Market25.9%
Difference -2.1 points
Draw —
Model22.3%
Market24.9%
Difference -2.7 points
Marseille HIGHER
Model53.9%
Market49.1%
Difference +4.8 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
4.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.59 —
Model60.1%
Market60.1%
Difference -0.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.39 —
Model39.9%
Market39.9%
Difference +0.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
I. BouraEstac TroyesHip Injury
Y. TitiEstac TroyesLeg Injury
Y. KoneEstac TroyesInjury
A. OuzenadjiEstac TroyesInjury
G. KondogbiaMarseilleThigh Injury
D. CorneliusMarseilleHip Injury
P. HojbjergMarseilleMuscle Injury
T. WeahMarseilleRed Card
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results