Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

RC LWWDL
PSG DLWWW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

No historical meetings on record between these two clubs.

Expected goals (xG)

1.28 vs 1.82
StrasbourgPSG
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Strasbourg
1 1
PSG
Model's most likely score · 10.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 16:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
50.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Strasbourg 1-1 PSG 10.5%
Strasbourg 1-2 PSG 9.6%
Strasbourg 0-1 PSG 8.2%
Strasbourg 0-2 PSG 7.5%
Strasbourg 2-1 PSG 6.7%

In brief

Eleventh-placed Strasbourg host sixth-placed PSG. Strasbourg arrive in mixed form and PSG in good form, and PSG have won their last three. Strasbourg are unbeaten at home and PSG are unbeaten away from home. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes PSG slight favourites. The bookmakers give PSG a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Strasbourg vs PSG
Attack strength
0.94 / 1.24
Defence strength
0.92 / 1.30
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Strasbourg win27%
Draw23%
PSG win50%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.6%
Overround
Strasbourg HIGHER
Model26.9%
Market14.9%
Difference +11.9 points
Draw HIGHER
Model22.9%
Market18.1%
Difference +4.8 points
PSG LOWER
Model50.2%
Market66.9%
Difference -16.8 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
6.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.3 LOWER
Model59.9%
Market71.8%
Difference -12.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.32 HIGHER
Model40.1%
Market28.2%
Difference +12.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
I. DoukoureStrasbourgInactive
M. GodoStrasbourgMuscle Injury
J. PanichelliStrasbourgKnee Injury
N. MendesParis Saint GermainRest
O. DembeleParis Saint GermainRest
A. LongoniParis Saint GermainInjury
S. MayuluParis Saint GermainGroin Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results