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Recent form

REN DWWWL
AJA LLLWW
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Stade Rennais vs Auxerre
4
Stade Rennais wins
4
Draws
3
Auxerre wins
From 11 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.24 vs 1.32
Stade RennaisAuxerre
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueRoazhon Park, Rennes
Referee Willy Delajod
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Stade Rennais
4 1
Auxerre
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 13m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 17:01 BST · Ligue 1 record #8 2b05fc131d
Outcome certainty
58.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Stade Rennais 2-1 Auxerre 9.4%
Stade Rennais 1-1 Auxerre 8.4%
Stade Rennais 2-0 Auxerre 7.1%
Stade Rennais 3-1 Auxerre 7.0%
Stade Rennais 1-0 Auxerre 6.4%

In brief

Final score: Stade Rennais 4-1 Auxerre. Fifth-placed Stade Rennais hosted eleventh-placed Auxerre. Stade Rennais arrived in good form and Auxerre in mixed form, and Stade Rennais had lost their last game after winning the three before it. Stade Rennais were unbeaten at home and Auxerre had lost every away game this season. Auxerre had one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Auxerre had the longer injury list. The model made Stade Rennais favourites and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers gave Stade Rennais a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Stade Rennais vs Auxerre
Attack strength
1.08 / 0.91
Defence strength
0.92 / 0.85
Head-to-head
1.04 / 0.96
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Stade Rennais win58%
Draw20%
Auxerre win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Stade Rennais LOWER
Model58.2%
Market65.9%
Difference -7.8 points
Draw —
Model19.9%
Market19.6%
Difference +0.3 points
Auxerre HIGHER
Model21.8%
Market14.4%
Difference +7.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.47 HIGHER
Model69.0%
Market63.6%
Difference +5.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.58 LOWER
Model31.0%
Market36.4%
Difference -5.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. DiousseAuxerreKnee Injury
S. FofanaAuxerreGroin Injury
B. OkohAuxerreKnee Injury
M. SenayaAuxerreHamstring Injury
T. SiweAuxerreMuscle Injury
C. MakossoAuxerreYellow Cards
R. MandengueAuxerreMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results