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Recent form

RCL WLLDL
LYO WDWDW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 73% of points taken

Head to head

RC Lens vs Olympique Lyon
7
RC Lens wins
4
Draws
8
Olympique Lyon wins
From 19 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.68 vs 1.56
RC LensOlympique Lyon
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Referee Jeremy Stinat
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
RC Lens
2 1
Olympique Lyon
We predicted 2-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 44m before kickoff · 08 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · Ligue 1 record #1 0891d5c0dc
Outcome certainty
40.8%
Low
ScorelineProbability
RC Lens 1-1 Olympique Lyon 10.3%
RC Lens 2-1 Olympique Lyon 8.6%
RC Lens 1-2 Olympique Lyon 8.0%
RC Lens 2-2 Olympique Lyon 6.7%
RC Lens 1-0 Olympique Lyon 6.6%

In brief

Final score: RC Lens 2-1 Olympique Lyon. Fifteenth-placed RC Lens hosted second-placed Olympique Lyon. RC Lens arrived in poor form and Olympique Lyon in good form. RC Lens had won one of their two home games and Olympique Lyon were unbeaten away from home. Olympique Lyon were the league's top scorers and had conceded the fewest goals in the league. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides. The bookmakers broadly agreed with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
RC Lens vs Olympique Lyon
Attack strength
1.24 / 1.10
Defence strength
0.98 / 1.26
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

RC Lens win41%
Draw23%
Olympique Lyon win36%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
RC Lens —
Model40.8%
Market39.2%
Difference +1.6 points
Draw —
Model23.2%
Market25.8%
Difference -2.5 points
Olympique Lyon —
Model36.0%
Market35.1%
Difference +1.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.52 —
Model62.9%
Market62.0%
Difference +0.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.48 —
Model37.1%
Market38.0%
Difference -0.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. NawrockiLensKnee Injury
A. SimaLensMuscle Injury
M. NiakhateLyonMuscle Injury
M. OuedraogoLyonKnee Injury
N. TagliaficoLyonRest
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results