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Recent form

PSG DDLWW
LMF DLDDW
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

PSG vs Le Mans
3
PSG wins
0
Draws
0
Le Mans wins
From 3 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.72 vs 0.84
PSGLe Mans
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueParc des Princes, Paris
Referee Mathieu Vernice
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
PSG
3 1
Le Mans
We predicted 3-1 EXACT SCORE
LOCKED 23h 43m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 20:01 BST · Ligue 1 record #5 01be5d2e11
Outcome certainty
76.6%
High
ScorelineProbability
PSG 2-0 Le Mans 10.5%
PSG 3-0 Le Mans 9.5%
PSG 2-1 Le Mans 8.8%
PSG 3-1 Le Mans 8.0%
PSG 1-0 Le Mans 7.7%

In brief

Final score: PSG 3-1 Le Mans. Sixth-placed PSG hosted ninth-placed Le Mans. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Le Mans were still looking for a first away win. Le Mans were one of the league's highest-scoring sides. PSG had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made PSG clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers gave PSG a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
PSG vs Le Mans
Attack strength
1.18 / 0.93
Defence strength
1.30 / 0.85
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

PSG win77%
Draw14%
Le Mans win9%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
4.9%
Overround
PSG LOWER
Model76.6%
Market87.7%
Difference -11.2 points
Draw HIGHER
Model14.2%
Market8.2%
Difference +6.0 points
Le Mans HIGHER
Model9.1%
Market4.1%
Difference +5.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
6.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.22 LOWER
Model68.9%
Market77.1%
Difference -8.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 4.08 HIGHER
Model30.9%
Market22.9%
Difference +8.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
N. MendesParis Saint GermainRest
O. DembeleParis Saint GermainRest
S. MayuluParis Saint GermainGroin Injury
A. LongoniParis Saint GermainInjury
E. ColasLe MansInjury
D. SidibeLe MansYellow Cards
L. BuadesLe MansKnock
A. BourabaaLe MansAnkle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results