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Recent form

PFC WWDWL
REN DWWWL
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Paris FC vs Stade Rennais
0
Paris FC wins
0
Draws
2
Stade Rennais wins
From 2 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.89 vs 1.41
Paris FCStade Rennais
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Paris FC
1 1
Stade Rennais
Model's most likely score · 9.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 16:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
48.7%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Paris FC 1-1 Stade Rennais 9.8%
Paris FC 2-1 Stade Rennais 9.3%
Paris FC 1-2 Stade Rennais 7.0%
Paris FC 1-0 Stade Rennais 7.0%
Paris FC 2-2 Stade Rennais 6.6%

In brief

Fifth-placed Paris FC host third-placed Stade Rennais. Both sides arrive in good form, and Stade Rennais lost their last game after winning the three before it. Paris FC are unbeaten at home and Stade Rennais have won one of their two away games. Paris FC have one of the league's tightest defences; Stade Rennais are the league's top scorers. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Paris FC slight favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Paris FC a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Paris FC vs Stade Rennais
Attack strength
0.93 / 1.17
Defence strength
1.17 / 0.84
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Paris FC win49%
Draw22%
Stade Rennais win29%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.2%
Overround
Paris FC HIGHER
Model48.7%
Market41.1%
Difference +7.5 points
Draw LOWER
Model22.4%
Market27.6%
Difference -5.2 points
Stade Rennais —
Model28.9%
Market31.3%
Difference -2.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
5.3%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.66 HIGHER
Model64.1%
Market57.3%
Difference +6.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.23 LOWER
Model35.9%
Market42.7%
Difference -6.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
N. SanguiParis FCMuscle Injury
V. MarchettiParis FCInactive
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results