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Recent form

LYO DWDWL
NIC LDLWW
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Olympique Lyon vs Nice
11
Olympique Lyon wins
2
Draws
7
Nice wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.23 vs 0.86
Olympique LyonNice
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueGroupama Stadium, Lyon
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Olympique Lyon
2 0
Nice
Model's most likely score · 11.3% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
68.4%
High
ScorelineProbability
Olympique Lyon 2-0 Nice 11.3%
Olympique Lyon 1-0 Nice 10.2%
Olympique Lyon 2-1 Nice 9.7%
Olympique Lyon 1-1 Nice 8.7%
Olympique Lyon 3-0 Nice 8.4%

In brief

Fourth-placed Olympique Lyon host ninth-placed Nice. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Olympique Lyon are unbeaten at home and Nice have lost every away game this season. Olympique Lyon are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have one of the league's tightest defences; Nice are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Olympique Lyon clear favourites. The model gives Olympique Lyon a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Olympique Lyon vs Nice
Attack strength
1.19 / 0.81
Defence strength
1.19 / 1.01
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Olympique Lyon win68%
Draw18%
Nice win13%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Olympique Lyon HIGHER
Model68.4%
Market56.7%
Difference +11.7 points
Draw LOWER
Model18.5%
Market23.9%
Difference -5.4 points
Nice LOWER
Model13.1%
Market19.4%
Difference -6.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.7 HIGHER
Model59.5%
Market56.2%
Difference +3.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.18 LOWER
Model40.5%
Market43.8%
Difference -3.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. NiakhateLyonMuscle Injury
R. HimbertLyonInactive
M. OuedraogoLyonKnee Injury
N. TagliaficoLyonRest
L. AbergelNiceKnee Injury
M. BombitoNiceLeg Injury
M. SansonNiceKnee Injury
A. MendyNiceKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results