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Recent form

NIC DLDLW
RC LWWDL
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Nice vs Strasbourg
6
Nice wins
5
Draws
7
Strasbourg wins
From 19 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.49 vs 1.59
NiceStrasbourg
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAllianz Riviera, Nice
Referee Jeremie Pignard
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Nice
2 1
Strasbourg
We predicted 1-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 57m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 14:02 BST · Ligue 1 record #7 e8dc768b2d
Outcome certainty
40.1%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Nice 1-1 Strasbourg 10.9%
Nice 1-2 Strasbourg 8.6%
Nice 2-1 Strasbourg 8.1%
Nice 0-1 Strasbourg 7.3%
Nice 1-0 Strasbourg 6.8%

In brief

Final score: Nice 2-1 Strasbourg. Fifteenth-placed Nice hosted ninth-placed Strasbourg. Nice arrived in poor form and Strasbourg in mixed form. Nice were unbeaten at home and Strasbourg had won one of their three away games. Nice were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Strasbourg were the league's top scorers and had one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides. The model gave Strasbourg a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Nice vs Strasbourg
Attack strength
0.82 / 1.10
Defence strength
0.97 / 0.91
Head-to-head
0.98 / 1.02
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Nice win36%
Draw24%
Strasbourg win40%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Nice LOWER
Model36.0%
Market40.7%
Difference -4.7 points
Draw —
Model23.9%
Market26.5%
Difference -2.6 points
Strasbourg HIGHER
Model40.1%
Market32.8%
Difference +7.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.69 HIGHER
Model59.5%
Market56.4%
Difference +3.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.19 LOWER
Model40.4%
Market43.6%
Difference -3.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
L. AbergelNiceKnee Injury
M. BombitoNiceLeg Injury
M. SansonNiceKnee Injury
A. MendyNiceKnee Injury
I. DoukoureStrasbourgInactive
M. GodoStrasbourgMuscle Injury
J. PanichelliStrasbourgKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results