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Recent form

ASM WWWDW
TOU LDLDW
Last 5 league results · 87% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Monaco vs Toulouse
11
Monaco wins
5
Draws
3
Toulouse wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.86 vs 1.32
MonacoToulouse
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Louis II, Monaco
Referee Ruddy Buquet
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Monaco
2 2
Toulouse
We predicted 2-1 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 43m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 20:01 BST · Ligue 1 record #6 a7f891e9f1
Outcome certainty
50.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Monaco 1-1 Toulouse 10.2%
Monaco 2-1 Toulouse 9.5%
Monaco 1-0 Toulouse 7.8%
Monaco 2-0 Toulouse 7.2%
Monaco 1-2 Toulouse 6.7%

In brief

Final score: Monaco 2-2 Toulouse. Leaders Monaco hosted thirteenth-placed Toulouse. Monaco arrived in excellent form and Toulouse in poor form. Monaco had won every home game this season and Toulouse were still looking for a first away win. Monaco had one of the league's tightest defences. Monaco had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Monaco slight favourites. The bookmakers gave Monaco a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Monaco vs Toulouse
Attack strength
0.99 / 1.15
Defence strength
1.12 / 0.99
Head-to-head
1.08 / 0.92
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Monaco win50%
Draw23%
Toulouse win27%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.7%
Overround
Monaco LOWER
Model50.0%
Market59.6%
Difference -9.6 points
Draw —
Model22.7%
Market22.2%
Difference +0.4 points
Toulouse HIGHER
Model27.3%
Market18.2%
Difference +9.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
4.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.59 —
Model61.5%
Market60.1%
Difference +1.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.39 —
Model38.5%
Market39.9%
Difference -1.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
P. BrunnerMonacoSuspended
R. NicolaisenToulouseCalf Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results