Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

FCL DLWDL
PFC DWWDW
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 73% of points taken

Head to head

Lorient vs Paris FC
6
Lorient wins
3
Draws
2
Paris FC wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.18 vs 1.30
LorientParis FC
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade du Moustoir, Lorient
Referee Jerome Brisard
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Lorient
1 0
Paris FC
We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 43m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 20:01 BST · Ligue 1 record #4 fa8ff942ed
Outcome certainty
39.5%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Lorient 1-1 Paris FC 12.8%
Lorient 0-1 Paris FC 10.9%
Lorient 1-0 Paris FC 9.9%
Lorient 0-0 Paris FC 8.4%
Lorient 1-2 Paris FC 8.4%

In brief

Final score: Lorient 1-0 Paris FC. Twelfth-placed Lorient hosted third-placed Paris FC. Lorient arrived in poor form and Paris FC in good form. Lorient were still looking for a first home win and Paris FC were unbeaten away from home. Paris FC had one of the league's tightest defences. Lorient had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides. The model gave Lorient a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Lorient vs Paris FC
Attack strength
0.91 / 1.03
Defence strength
1.02 / 1.42
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Lorient win33%
Draw27%
Paris FC win39%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Lorient HIGHER
Model33.4%
Market29.3%
Difference +4.1 points
Draw —
Model27.1%
Market28.6%
Difference -1.5 points
Paris FC —
Model39.5%
Market42.1%
Difference -2.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.94 LOWER
Model45.1%
Market49.3%
Difference -4.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.89 HIGHER
Model54.9%
Market50.7%
Difference +4.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. FadigaLorientAnkle Injury
N. MbambaLorientMuscle Injury
P. KatserisLorientHamstring Injury
N. SanguiParis FCMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results