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Recent form

FCL LWDLW
ASM WWDWD
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 73% of points taken

Head to head

Lorient vs Monaco
5
Lorient wins
6
Draws
9
Monaco wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.38 vs 1.57
LorientMonaco
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade du Moustoir, Lorient
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Lorient
1 1
Monaco
Model's most likely score · 11.3% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 16:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
42.1%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Lorient 1-1 Monaco 11.3%
Lorient 1-2 Monaco 8.9%
Lorient 0-1 Monaco 8.2%
Lorient 2-1 Monaco 7.8%
Lorient 1-0 Monaco 7.2%

In brief

Eighth-placed Lorient host leaders Monaco. Lorient arrive in mixed form and Monaco in good form. Lorient have won one of their three home games and Monaco are unbeaten away from home. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Lorient a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Lorient vs Monaco
Attack strength
0.90 / 1.00
Defence strength
0.92 / 1.08
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.06
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Lorient win33%
Draw24%
Monaco win42%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Lorient HIGHER
Model33.5%
Market26.7%
Difference +6.8 points
Draw —
Model24.4%
Market27.0%
Difference -2.6 points
Monaco LOWER
Model42.1%
Market46.3%
Difference -4.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
4.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.87 HIGHER
Model56.5%
Market51.2%
Difference +5.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.96 LOWER
Model43.5%
Market48.8%
Difference -5.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. FadigaLorientAnkle Injury
P. KatserisLorientHamstring Injury
N. MbambaLorientMuscle Injury
P. BrunnerMonacoSuspended
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results