Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

LIL WDWWL
HAC LDLDL
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 13% of points taken

Head to head

Lille vs Le Havre
5
Lille wins
1
Draws
1
Le Havre wins
From 7 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.81 vs 0.94
LilleLe Havre
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Referee Bastein Dechepy
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Lille
1 0
Le Havre
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 14m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 17:00 BST · Ligue 1 record #2 9d9f7c06e2
Outcome certainty
57.8%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Lille 1-0 Le Havre 11.6%
Lille 1-1 Le Havre 10.9%
Lille 2-0 Le Havre 10.5%
Lille 2-1 Le Havre 9.8%
Lille 0-0 Le Havre 6.4%

In brief

Final score: Lille 1-0 Le Havre. Fourth-placed Lille hosted bottom side Le Havre. Lille arrived in good form and Le Havre in poor form. Lille were unbeaten at home and Le Havre were still looking for a first away win. Le Havre were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Lille had much the better of their earlier meetings. Le Havre had the longer injury list. The model made Lille favourites. The bookmakers gave Lille a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Lille vs Le Havre
Attack strength
0.94 / 0.82
Defence strength
1.06 / 1.01
Head-to-head
1.13 / 0.87
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Lille win58%
Draw23%
Le Havre win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Lille LOWER
Model57.8%
Market65.9%
Difference -8.2 points
Draw —
Model22.9%
Market20.3%
Difference +2.6 points
Le Havre HIGHER
Model19.3%
Market13.8%
Difference +5.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.65 LOWER
Model51.8%
Market57.8%
Difference -6.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.26 HIGHER
Model48.2%
Market42.2%
Difference +6.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
H. IgamaneLilleKnee Injury
F. MambimbiLe HavreAchilles Tendon Injury
A. ToureLe HavreKnee Injury
S. ZagadouLe HavreKnee Injury
L. Mpasi-NzauLe HavreAchilles Tendon Injury
T. PembeleLe HavreMuscle Injury
E. JelertLe HavreThigh Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results