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Recent form

LIL DWWLW
BRE DWLLW
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Lille vs Brest
9
Lille wins
6
Draws
4
Brest wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.60 vs 1.15
LilleBrest
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Lille
1 1
Brest
Model's most likely score · 11.7% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
47.8%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Lille 1-1 Brest 11.7%
Lille 1-0 Brest 10.2%
Lille 2-1 Brest 9.4%
Lille 2-0 Brest 8.2%
Lille 0-1 Brest 7.3%

In brief

Second-placed Lille host seventh-placed Brest. Lille arrive in good form and Brest in mixed form. Lille are unbeaten at home and Brest have won one of their three away games. Lille have conceded the fewest goals in the league; Brest are one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Lille have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Lille slight favourites. The bookmakers give Lille a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Lille vs Brest
Attack strength
0.91 / 1.03
Defence strength
1.17 / 1.03
Head-to-head
1.03 / 0.97
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Lille win48%
Draw25%
Brest win27%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Lille LOWER
Model47.8%
Market55.9%
Difference -8.1 points
Draw —
Model24.8%
Market23.9%
Difference +0.8 points
Brest HIGHER
Model27.4%
Market20.1%
Difference +7.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.71 LOWER
Model52.0%
Market55.4%
Difference -3.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.13 HIGHER
Model48.0%
Market44.6%
Difference +3.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
H. IgamaneLilleKnee Injury
E. MbappeLilleRed Card
T. SantosLilleInjury
B. ChardonnetStade Brestois 29Calf Injury
R. Le GuenStade Brestois 29Broken Leg
G. VersiniStade Brestois 29Leg Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results