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Recent form

LMF LDDWL
TOU DLDWD
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

No historical meetings on record between these two clubs.

Expected goals (xG)

1.38 vs 1.80
Le MansToulouse
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMMArena, Le Mans
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Le Mans
1 1
Toulouse
Model's most likely score · 10.3% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 15 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
47.4%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Le Mans 1-1 Toulouse 10.3%
Le Mans 1-2 Toulouse 9.3%
Le Mans 0-1 Toulouse 7.5%
Le Mans 2-1 Toulouse 7.1%
Le Mans 0-2 Toulouse 6.7%

In brief

Thirteenth-placed Le Mans host fourteenth-placed Toulouse. Le Mans arrive in poor form and Toulouse in mixed form. Le Mans are unbeaten at home and Toulouse are still looking for a first away win. Le Mans have one of the league's leakiest defences. Le Mans have the longer injury list. The model makes Toulouse slight favourites. The model gives Toulouse a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Le Mans vs Toulouse
Attack strength
0.80 / 1.08
Defence strength
0.81 / 1.03
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Le Mans win30%
Draw23%
Toulouse win47%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Le Mans —
Model29.7%
Market32.3%
Difference -2.7 points
Draw LOWER
Model23.0%
Market27.3%
Difference -4.3 points
Toulouse HIGHER
Model47.4%
Market40.4%
Difference +7.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.76 HIGHER
Model61.6%
Market53.9%
Difference +7.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.06 LOWER
Model38.4%
Market46.1%
Difference -7.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. ColasLe MansInjury
T. EyoumLe MansCoach's decision
E. QuarshieLe MansCoach's decision
D. SidibeLe MansYellow Cards
A. BourabaaLe MansAnkle Injury
M. RossignolLe MansInjury
J. VignoloToulouseInactive
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results