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Recent form

HAC DLDLL
AJA LLLWW
Last 5 league results · 13% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Le Havre vs Auxerre
12
Le Havre wins
5
Draws
3
Auxerre wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.94 vs 1.14
Le HavreAuxerre
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Océane, Le Havre
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Le Havre
1 1
Auxerre
Model's most likely score · 10.2% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 16:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
55.9%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre 10.2%
Le Havre 2-1 Auxerre 9.9%
Le Havre 1-0 Auxerre 8.9%
Le Havre 2-0 Auxerre 8.6%
Le Havre 3-1 Auxerre 6.4%

In brief

Bottom side Le Havre host fifteenth-placed Auxerre. Le Havre arrive in poor form and Auxerre in mixed form. Le Havre are still looking for a first home win and Auxerre have lost every away game this season. Le Havre are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Auxerre have one of the league's leakiest defences. Le Havre have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Le Havre favourites. The model gives Le Havre a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Le Havre vs Auxerre
Attack strength
0.80 / 0.93
Defence strength
1.05 / 0.77
Head-to-head
1.05 / 0.94
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Le Havre win56%
Draw22%
Auxerre win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.2%
Overround
Le Havre HIGHER
Model55.9%
Market38.7%
Difference +17.2 points
Draw LOWER
Model22.0%
Market28.0%
Difference -6.1 points
Auxerre LOWER
Model22.1%
Market33.3%
Difference -11.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
4.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.89 HIGHER
Model59.5%
Market50.6%
Difference +8.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.94 LOWER
Model40.5%
Market49.4%
Difference -8.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
F. MambimbiLe HavreAchilles Tendon Injury
A. ToureLe HavreKnee Injury
S. ZagadouLe HavreKnee Injury
L. Mpasi-NzauLe HavreAchilles Tendon Injury
T. PembeleLe HavreMuscle Injury
E. JelertLe HavreThigh Injury
A. DiousseAuxerreKnee Injury
S. FofanaAuxerreGroin Injury
B. OkohAuxerreKnee Injury
M. SenayaAuxerreHamstring Injury
T. SiweAuxerreMuscle Injury
C. MakossoAuxerreYellow Cards
R. MandengueAuxerreMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results