Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

BRE DDWLL
ANG LWLDW
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Brest vs Angers SCO
10
Brest wins
4
Draws
5
Angers SCO wins
From 19 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.83 vs 1.09
BrestAngers SCO
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest
Referee Eric Wattellier
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Brest
5 1
Angers SCO
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 44m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · Ligue 1 record #3 4ddadbce37
Outcome certainty
54.7%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Brest 1-1 Angers SCO 10.8%
Brest 1-0 Angers SCO 9.9%
Brest 2-1 Angers SCO 9.8%
Brest 2-0 Angers SCO 9.0%
Brest 3-1 Angers SCO 6.0%

In brief

Final score: Brest 5-1 Angers SCO. Eleventh-placed Brest hosted seventh-placed Angers SCO. Brest arrived in poor form and Angers SCO in mixed form. Brest were still looking for a first home win and Angers SCO were unbeaten away from home. Brest had much the better of their earlier meetings. Brest had the longer injury list. The model made Brest favourites. The model gave Brest a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Brest vs Angers SCO
Attack strength
1.08 / 0.88
Defence strength
1.06 / 1.07
Head-to-head
1.06 / 0.94
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Brest win55%
Draw23%
Angers SCO win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.6%
Overround
Brest HIGHER
Model54.7%
Market47.3%
Difference +7.4 points
Draw LOWER
Model22.9%
Market26.3%
Difference -3.4 points
Angers SCO LOWER
Model22.4%
Market26.4%
Difference -4.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.75 —
Model55.8%
Market54.4%
Difference +1.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.09 —
Model44.2%
Market45.6%
Difference -1.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. ChardonnetStade Brestois 29Calf Injury
M. DiambouStade Brestois 29Ankle Injury
R. Le GuenStade Brestois 29Broken Leg
G. VersiniStade Brestois 29Leg Injury
U. SimbakoliAngersMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results