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ANG WLDWL
MAR WLLLL
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Angers SCO vs Marseille
2
Angers SCO wins
9
Draws
9
Marseille wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.52 vs 1.38
Angers SCOMarseille
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Angers SCO
1 1
Marseille
Model's most likely score · 11.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
40.7%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Angers SCO 1-1 Marseille 11.6%
Angers SCO 2-1 Marseille 8.8%
Angers SCO 1-0 Marseille 8.4%
Angers SCO 1-2 Marseille 8.0%
Angers SCO 0-1 Marseille 7.6%

In brief

Twelfth-placed Angers SCO host seventeenth-placed Marseille. Angers SCO arrive in mixed form and Marseille in poor form, and Marseille have lost their last four. Angers SCO have won one of their three home games and Marseille have lost every away game this season. Marseille have had much the better of their past meetings. Marseille have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Angers SCO a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Angers SCO vs Marseille
Attack strength
0.90 / 0.96
Defence strength
1.03 / 0.96
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Angers SCO win41%
Draw25%
Marseille win35%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Angers SCO HIGHER
Model40.7%
Market30.4%
Difference +10.3 points
Draw —
Model24.8%
Market25.9%
Difference -1.1 points
Marseille LOWER
Model34.5%
Market43.7%
Difference -9.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.62 LOWER
Model55.2%
Market58.9%
Difference -3.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.32 HIGHER
Model44.8%
Market41.1%
Difference +3.7 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
U. SimbakoliAngersMuscle Injury
G. KondogbiaMarseilleThigh Injury
D. CorneliusMarseilleHip Injury
P. HojbjergMarseilleMuscle Injury
T. WeahMarseilleRed Card
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results