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Recent form

VIL LLWWL
ELC LDLWD
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Villarreal vs Elche
6
Villarreal wins
4
Draws
2
Elche wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.59 vs 1.19
VillarrealElche
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Villarreal
2 1
Elche
Model's most likely score · 9.1% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 15:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
67.5%
High
ScorelineProbability
Villarreal 2-1 Elche 9.1%
Villarreal 3-1 Elche 7.9%
Villarreal 2-0 Elche 7.7%
Villarreal 1-1 Elche 7.0%
Villarreal 3-0 Elche 6.6%

In brief

Eleventh-placed Villarreal host seventeenth-placed Elche. Villarreal arrive in mixed form and Elche in poor form. Villarreal have won one of their three home games and Elche have won one of their four away games. Villarreal have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Villarreal clear favourites and expects plenty of goals. The bookmakers rate a draw as more likely than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Villarreal vs Elche
Attack strength
1.37 / 0.95
Defence strength
0.96 / 0.96
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Villarreal win67%
Draw17%
Elche win15%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Villarreal —
Model67.5%
Market64.6%
Difference +2.9 points
Draw LOWER
Model17.0%
Market20.2%
Difference -3.2 points
Elche —
Model15.4%
Market15.2%
Difference +0.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.46 HIGHER
Model72.6%
Market64.4%
Difference +8.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.63 LOWER
Model27.2%
Market35.6%
Difference -8.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. BuchananVillarrealMuscle Injury
N. PepeVillarrealEye injury
Y. SantiagoElcheKnee Injury
F. Redondo SolariElcheRed Card
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results