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VAL LLWLD
ATH LWWDD
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Valencia vs Athletic
6
Valencia wins
7
Draws
7
Athletic wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.26 vs 1.61
ValenciaAthletic
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Valencia
1 1
Athletic
Model's most likely score · 11.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
45.6%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Valencia 1-1 Athletic 11.5%
Valencia 1-2 Athletic 9.3%
Valencia 0-1 Athletic 9.1%
Valencia 0-2 Athletic 7.3%
Valencia 2-1 Athletic 7.2%

In brief

Nineteenth-placed Valencia host tenth-placed Athletic. Valencia arrive in poor form and Athletic in mixed form. Valencia are still looking for a first home win and Athletic have won one of their two away games. Valencia are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Athletic slight favourites. The bookmakers rate a draw as more likely than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Valencia vs Athletic
Attack strength
0.78 / 1.00
Defence strength
0.81 / 1.05
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Valencia win30%
Draw24%
Athletic win46%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Valencia —
Model30.0%
Market27.1%
Difference +2.8 points
Draw LOWER
Model24.5%
Market27.9%
Difference -3.4 points
Athletic —
Model45.6%
Market45.0%
Difference +0.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
5.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.04 HIGHER
Model54.8%
Market46.8%
Difference +8.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.79 LOWER
Model45.2%
Market53.2%
Difference -8.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
S. CanosValenciaKnee Injury
J. CopeteValenciaKnee Injury
D. FoulquierValenciaInjury
D. LopezValenciaKnee Injury
L. RiojaValenciaHeel Injury
U. SadiqValenciaMuscle Injury
U. EgiluzAthletic ClubKnee Injury
A. DjaloAthletic ClubIllness
O. SancetAthletic ClubMuscle Injury
N. WilliamsAthletic ClubThigh Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results