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Recent form

SAN WLWLL
VAL LLLWL
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Santander vs Valencia
0
Santander wins
2
Draws
2
Valencia wins
From 4 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.40 vs 1.21
SantanderValencia
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEl Sardinero, Santander
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Santander
2 2
Valencia
We predicted 1-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · LaLiga record #9 682351635a
Outcome certainty
41.5%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Santander 1-1 Valencia 12.4%
Santander 1-0 Valencia 10.3%
Santander 0-1 Valencia 8.9%
Santander 2-1 Valencia 8.7%
Santander 1-2 Valencia 7.5%

In brief

Final score: Santander 2-2 Valencia. Sixteenth-placed Santander hosted nineteenth-placed Valencia. Santander arrived in mixed form and Valencia in poor form. Santander were unbeaten at home and Valencia had won one of their three away games. Santander had one of the league's leakiest defences; Valencia were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Valencia had much the better of their earlier meetings. Valencia had the longer injury list. The model saw little between the sides. The bookmakers broadly agreed with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Santander vs Valencia
Attack strength
0.93 / 0.80
Defence strength
0.88 / 1.06
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Santander win42%
Draw26%
Valencia win32%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.4%
Overround
Santander —
Model41.5%
Market40.7%
Difference +0.8 points
Draw —
Model26.2%
Market26.8%
Difference -0.7 points
Valencia —
Model32.3%
Market32.4%
Difference -0.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.68 LOWER
Model48.5%
Market56.8%
Difference -8.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.21 HIGHER
Model51.5%
Market43.2%
Difference +8.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
S. ErikssonRacing SantanderShoulder Injury
S. CanosValenciaKnee Injury
D. FoulquierValenciaInjury
D. LopezValenciaKnee Injury
L. RiojaValenciaHeel Injury
U. SadiqValenciaMuscle Injury
A. DanjumaValenciaInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results