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Recent form

RSO WDWLW
DEP WWDLD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo
5
Real Sociedad wins
5
Draws
2
Deportivo wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.76 vs 1.07
Real SociedadDeportivo
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAnoeta Stadium, San Sebastian
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Real Sociedad
3 2
Deportivo
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 13m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 16:01 BST · LaLiga record #7 c85368665e
Outcome certainty
53.6%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Real Sociedad 1-1 Deportivo 11.1%
Real Sociedad 1-0 Deportivo 10.5%
Real Sociedad 2-1 Deportivo 9.8%
Real Sociedad 2-0 Deportivo 9.2%
Real Sociedad 0-1 Deportivo 6.3%

In brief

Final score: Real Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo. Eighth-placed Real Sociedad hosted seventh-placed Deportivo. Real Sociedad arrived in good form and Deportivo in mixed form. Real Sociedad had won one of their three home games and Deportivo were unbeaten away from home. Real Sociedad had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Real Sociedad favourites. The bookmakers gave Real Sociedad a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo
Attack strength
0.95 / 0.79
Defence strength
0.90 / 0.96
Head-to-head
1.06 / 0.94
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Sociedad win54%
Draw24%
Deportivo win23%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.2%
Overround
Real Sociedad LOWER
Model53.6%
Market59.3%
Difference -5.7 points
Draw —
Model23.5%
Market23.4%
Difference +0.1 points
Deportivo HIGHER
Model22.9%
Market17.3%
Difference +5.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.75 —
Model53.6%
Market54.5%
Difference -0.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.1 —
Model46.4%
Market45.5%
Difference +0.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. OdriozolaReal SociedadKnee Injury
H. FortReal SociedadInjury
I. ZubeldiaReal SociedadInjury
J. AramburuReal SociedadMuscle Injury
O. OskarssonReal SociedadRed Card
P. AubameyangDeportivo La CorunaKnee Injury
M. CasadoDeportivo La CorunaCollarbone injury
Z. EddahchouriDeportivo La CorunaWrist Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results