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RMA WLWWL
VIL LLLWW
Last 5 league results · 60% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Real Madrid vs Villarreal
10
Real Madrid wins
7
Draws
3
Villarreal wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.28 vs 1.18
Real MadridVillarreal
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueSantiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Real Madrid
1 0
Villarreal
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · LaLiga record #5 339f62d1bb
Outcome certainty
61.9%
High
ScorelineProbability
Real Madrid 2-1 Villarreal 9.6%
Real Madrid 1-1 Villarreal 8.4%
Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal 8.1%
Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal 7.3%
Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal 7.1%

In brief

Final score: Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal. Fourth-placed Real Madrid hosted ninth-placed Villarreal. Real Madrid arrived in good form and Villarreal in mixed form. Real Madrid had won every home game this season and Villarreal had won one of their four away games. Real Madrid were one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Real Madrid had much the better of their earlier meetings. Real Madrid had the longer injury list. The model made Real Madrid favourites and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers gave Real Madrid a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Attack strength
1.49 / 1.27
Defence strength
1.30 / 1.17
Head-to-head
1.06 / 0.94
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Madrid win62%
Draw19%
Villarreal win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.6%
Overround
Real Madrid LOWER
Model61.9%
Market69.2%
Difference -7.2 points
Draw —
Model19.3%
Market17.0%
Difference +2.3 points
Villarreal HIGHER
Model18.7%
Market13.8%
Difference +4.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.27 LOWER
Model67.2%
Market73.6%
Difference -6.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.54 HIGHER
Model32.8%
Market26.4%
Difference +6.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
R. AsencioReal MadridBroken Leg
Eder MilitaoReal MadridHamstring Injury
F. MendyReal MadridHip Injury
RodrygoReal MadridKnee Injury
D. HuijsenReal MadridRed Card
T. BuchananVillarrealMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results