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RMA LWWLW
SEV LDWWL
Last 5 league results · 60% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC
15
Real Madrid wins
2
Draws
3
Sevilla FC wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.54 vs 0.83
Real MadridSevilla FC
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMadrid
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Real Madrid
2 0
Sevilla FC
Model's most likely score · 11.1% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
74.2%
High
ScorelineProbability
Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla FC 11.1%
Real Madrid 3-0 Sevilla FC 9.4%
Real Madrid 2-1 Sevilla FC 9.2%
Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla FC 8.7%
Real Madrid 3-1 Sevilla FC 7.8%

In brief

Fourth-placed Real Madrid host fifth-placed Sevilla FC. Real Madrid arrive in good form and Sevilla FC in mixed form. Real Madrid have won every home game this season and Sevilla FC are unbeaten away from home. Real Madrid are one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Real Madrid have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Real Madrid clear favourites and expects plenty of goals. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC
Attack strength
1.42 / 0.99
Defence strength
1.38 / 1.05
Head-to-head
1.10 / 0.90
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Madrid win74%
Draw16%
Sevilla FC win10%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Real Madrid —
Model74.2%
Market75.7%
Difference -1.5 points
Draw —
Model15.6%
Market14.8%
Difference +0.8 points
Sevilla FC —
Model10.1%
Market9.5%
Difference +0.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.36 LOWER
Model65.3%
Market68.9%
Difference -3.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.01 HIGHER
Model34.6%
Market31.1%
Difference +3.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
R. AsencioReal MadridBroken Leg
Eder MilitaoReal MadridHamstring Injury
F. MendyReal MadridHip Injury
RodrygoReal MadridKnee Injury
D. HuijsenReal MadridRed Card
MarcaoSevillaMuscle Injury
L. StassinSevillaMuscle Injury
N. GuillenSevillaCoach's decision
I. MunozSevillaInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results