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Recent form

BET LWWWD
OSA WLLLD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Real Betis vs Osasuna
13
Real Betis wins
4
Draws
3
Osasuna wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.93 vs 0.99
Real BetisOsasuna
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio de la Cartuja, Seville
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Real Betis
5 2
Osasuna
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 29m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 BST · LaLiga record #8 38f6bfd4fa
Outcome certainty
59.4%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Real Betis 1-0 Osasuna 10.5%
Real Betis 1-1 Osasuna 10.3%
Real Betis 2-0 Osasuna 10.1%
Real Betis 2-1 Osasuna 9.9%
Real Betis 3-0 Osasuna 6.5%

In brief

Final score: Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna. Third-placed Real Betis hosted fourteenth-placed Osasuna. Real Betis arrived in good form and Osasuna in poor form, and Real Betis had drawn their last game after winning the three before it. Real Betis had won every home game this season and Osasuna had won one of their three away games. Real Betis had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Real Betis favourites. The model gave Osasuna a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Betis vs Osasuna
Attack strength
0.98 / 0.89
Defence strength
1.06 / 0.93
Head-to-head
1.09 / 0.91
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Betis win59%
Draw22%
Osasuna win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.3%
Overround
Real Betis LOWER
Model59.4%
Market62.6%
Difference -3.3 points
Draw —
Model21.8%
Market21.9%
Difference -0.1 points
Osasuna HIGHER
Model18.8%
Market15.5%
Difference +3.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.75 —
Model55.7%
Market54.5%
Difference +1.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.1 —
Model44.3%
Market45.5%
Difference -1.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. RuibalReal BetisKnee Injury
J. FirpoReal BetisGroin Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results